Forex market overview for today The Conference Board’s August consumer confidence index fell from 98.7 to 97.4 versus a 96.4 forecast, but investor attention is focused on the standoff between U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, whom he said he dismissed yesterday. The president justified his actions by alleging Cook manipulated mortgage approvals, while openly acknowledging that direct pressure on Fed officials stems from his push to ease monetary policy. Today, the White House said the president expects to soon have a majority of his own nominees on the Fed’s Board of Governors to influence policy decisions. In his view, high interest rates are the only problem for the U.S. economy and must be adjusted. Cook, however, stated she will ask a court to affirm her ability to continue serving as a Board member. Experts warn that, if the president succeeds, investor trust in the Fed as an independent economic institution could be significantly undermined.

Eurozone

The euro is weakening against the pound and the U.S. dollar, while showing mixed dynamics versus the yen.

In September, Germany’s GfK consumer climate index fell from –21.7 to –23.6 (consensus –21.5). The downtrend has intensified for a third straight month, which GfK attributes to a sharp slowdown in household income growth and growing concerns over layoffs, a resurgence of inflation, geopolitical issues, and the negative effects of U.S. tariff policy.

United Kingdom

The pound is weakening against the U.S. dollar but strengthening versus the yen and the euro.

Investors are assessing August retail sales volumes from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI): the index improved from –34 to –32 versus –26 expected, remaining negative for an eleventh consecutive month. According to the CBI, weak demand and high labor costs are eroding profits and dampening sentiment across retail and distribution, prompting most firms to cut investment and hiring plans. Meanwhile, Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann said there are strong grounds to keep borrowing costs at current levels for an extended period, but she reaffirmed readiness to implement a “large and rapid rate cut” if domestic demand slows materially. For now, the economy remains stable: Q2 GDP grew 0.3%, and with CPI at 3.8% y/y in July, there is little justification for immediate policy changes.

Japan

The yen is weakening against the pound and the U.S. dollar, with mixed moves versus the euro.

Japan’s Cabinet Office monthly economic report kept its overall view that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace, noting that profit growth is slowing in some sectors under pressure from high U.S. trade tariffs. Officials upgraded their view on public investment but lowered projections for housing construction. Private consumption—which accounts for more than half of the economy—is expected to maintain a positive trend.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against the euro, weakening versus the U.S. dollar, and showing mixed dynamics against the yen and the pound.

Focus is on July inflation data: the trimmed mean CPI rose from 1.9% to 2.8% y/y (vs. 2.3% expected), while the weighted median increased from 2.1% to 2.7%. Analysts note the pickup in price pressures is driven by a 13.0% rise in electricity costs. Following the data, investors lowered the probability of a September rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from 30.0% to 22.0%, but still expect easing at the November meeting.

Oil

Crude prices are attempting to rise, supported by API inventory figures showing a –0.974 million barrel change versus a –1.700 million forecast. At 16:30 (GMT+2) today, the U.S. EIA will release its own data; preliminary estimates point to a –1.700 million barrel draw, which would support energy prices.

Investors are also watching India’s response to newly effective 50.0% U.S. tariffs. Although New Delhi previously said it would continue buying Russian crude, analysts do not rule out a shift in that stance