Gold is also supported by the lack of progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict: nearly two weeks have passed since the summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, but no concrete ceasefire decisions have been made, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
The market is entering a correction. According to the CFTC report, net speculative positions in gold declined from 229.5K to 212.6K last week, with most liquidations concentrated in key categories: the balance of “bulls” in money-backed positions was 177,561 against 35,803 for “bears,” with buyers cutting 10,575 contracts while sellers increased 1,893 contracts.
The long-term trend remains bullish: the instrument is approaching resistance at 3430.00, and if broken, the price could surpass the May, June, and July peaks and test the 3500.00 level. A breakout above would signal new all-time highs toward 3600.00. On the downside, a reversal at 3430.00 could send the price into the 3430.00–3260.00 range, and if the lower boundary breaks, short positions targeting 3177.00–3121.00 would become relevant. Prices remain above EMA (21) and EMA (190), confirming upward trends, while RSI (14) is neutral, allowing for both buying and selling opportunities.
The medium-term trend is also bullish: at the end of July, gold rebounded near support at 3301.00–3286.00 and broke through 3368.00, moving toward the June high of 3451.00. A consolidation above would likely lead to a breakout of zone 2 (3435.00–3420.00) and continuation to zone 3 (3585.00–3570.00). Alternatively, consolidation below 3286.00 would validate short positions targeting 3151.00–3136.00.
Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance: 3432.00, 3500.00, 3600.00.
Support: 3263.00, 3177.00, 3121.00.
Trading Scenarios
Short positions may be opened from 3432.00 targeting 3263.00 with a stop-loss at 3485.00. Implementation horizon: 9–12 days.
Long positions may be opened above 3485.00 targeting 3600.00 with a stop-loss at 3435.00.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: SELL LIMIT
Entry Point: 3432.00
Take Profit: 3263.00
Stop Loss: 3485.00
Key Levels: 3121.00, 3177.00, 3263.00, 3432.00, 3500.00, 3600.00
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 3485.00
Take Profit: 3600.00
Stop Loss: 3435.00
Key Levels: 3121.00, 3177.00, 3263.00, 3432.00, 3500.00, 3600.00