XAU/USD Analysis — Gold Consolidates Near $4075 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Analysts have little doubt that the regulator will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% and will likely signal further monetary easing before the end of the year. Moreover, expectations are gradually growing for a deeper rate cut of 50 basis points. This sentiment is partly driven by recent inflation data released late last week: in September, the annual consumer price index accelerated from 2.9% to 3.0%, while the monthly figure slowed from 0.4% to 0.3%. The core index moved from 3.1% to 3.0% year-on-year and from 0.3% to 0.2% month-on-month.

Additionally, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to the ongoing government shutdown that began in October and may continue until late November. The White House administration is reportedly pressuring members of the Democratic Party through mass layoffs of federal employees. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently warned that salary payments to military personnel could face delays after November 15.

This week will also feature meetings of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan. The Canadian regulator, like the Fed, may cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, while the European and Japanese central banks are expected to keep their current monetary policy unchanged.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are flattening into a horizontal range: the price corridor remains wide enough for the current market volatility. MACD is declining, maintaining a firm sell signal (its histogram is below the signal line). The Stochastic oscillator, having approached the “20” mark, is attempting to turn upward, signaling uncertain prospects for a sustained corrective rebound in the near term.

Resistance levels: 4120.00, 4179.79, 4242.04, 4300.00.

Support levels: 4059.03, 4000.00, 3930.00, 3880.00.

Trading Scenarios and XAU/USD Forecast

Short positions can be opened after a confident breakout below 4000.00 with a target of 3880.00. Stop-loss — 4059.03. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

A return of bullish momentum with a breakout above 4120.00 may signal the opening of new long positions targeting 4242.04. Stop-loss — 4059.03.