The Westpac Banking Corp. consumer sentiment index fell 3.1% in September after a 5.7% jump the previous month, which marked a 3.5-year high. Concerns about the economic outlook outweighed improving household budgets. Matthew Hassan, head of macroeconomic forecasting at Westpac, noted that sentiment had been gradually improving in recent months as the Reserve Bank of Australia eased borrowing costs and inflation slowed. At the same time, household spending grew 2.6% year-on-year, while the 12-month outlook rose 0.9%. Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank business confidence index dropped sharply from 8.0 to 4.0 points in August, while the business conditions index rose from 5.0 to 7.0 points.

The pair’s strength is also supported by U.S. dollar weakness, as traders anticipate a dovish Fed shift in September. Friday’s U.S. labor market report showed just 22,000 new nonfarm payrolls versus 79,000 previously and a forecast of 75,000. Average hourly earnings slowed from 3.9% to 3.7% y/y, adding 0.3% m/m, while unemployment ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Later today at 16:00 (GMT+2), the U.S. will release revised employment data for the 12 months through March, expected to show weaker job growth than initially estimated, with analysts projecting between 800,000 and 1.0 million. Confirmation of these figures would strengthen pressure on the Fed, leaving fewer arguments against rate cuts. Current forecasts diverge: Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank argue the August jobs report wasn’t weak enough to justify a 50-bp cut, while Barclays expects a 25-bp cut at each remaining meeting this year. Bank of America anticipates 25-bp cuts in both September and December. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price an 88.4% probability of a 25-bp cut and a 10.0% chance of a 50-bp move.

Price & forecast (near term)

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show steady growth: the price range is starting to widen but lags behind the surge in bullish sentiment. MACD is rising above the signal line, keeping a firm buy signal. Stochastic is trending higher but nearing overbought territory, warning of short-term risks for the Aussie.

AUD/USD

  • Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687, 0.6732.

  • Support levels: 0.6570, 0.6530, 0.6500, 0.6462.

Trading scenarios

  • Long positions may be opened after a breakout above 0.6644 with a target at 0.6732 and stop-loss at 0.6600. Horizon: 2–3 days.

  • A pullback from 0.6644 followed by a breakdown below 0.6600 could trigger short positions targeting 0.6500. Stop-loss at 0.6644.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Intraday

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry point: 0.6645

  • Take Profit: 0.6732

  • Stop Loss: 0.6600

  • Key levels: 0.6462, 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687, 0.6732

Alternative scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry point: 0.6600

  • Take Profit: 0.6500

  • Stop Loss: 0.6644

  • Key levels: 0.6462, 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6570, 0.6600, 0.6644, 0.6687, 0.6732