AUD/USD Rises Toward 0.6570 as U.S. Dollar Weakens Amid Ongoing Shutdown

The U.S. Senate has rejected the temporary federal funding bill for the seventh time, increasing political uncertainty as macroeconomic data releases remain suspended. Labor market indicators — key to the Federal Reserve’s policy direction — are currently unavailable, though investors remain confident the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with another reduction possible in December.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a cautious stance. Last week, policymakers unanimously voted to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.60%, citing persistent inflation risks. Governor Michele Bullock said the economy is in “reasonably good shape,” with inflation holding within the 2.0–3.0% target range, a tight labor market, and recovering household consumption.

Recent Australian macro data supported the RBA’s cautious view. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge rose from 2.8% to 3.0% year-over-year in September, while monthly inflation turned positive, from –0.3% to +0.4%. However, the consumer sentiment index fell further from –3.1% to –3.5%, reflecting lingering caution among households.

Support and Resistance Levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are flattening, showing a neutral horizontal formation with ample space for current price activity. The MACD remains below the signal line, maintaining a mild bearish tone, while the Stochastic has bounced from the 20 area, turning upward and signaling a short-term corrective rebound.

Resistance levels: 0.6572, 0.6600, 0.6628, 0.6644.
Support levels: 0.6530, 0.6500, 0.6462, 0.6438.

Trading Scenarios and AUD/USD Forecast

Long positions can be opened after a confident breakout above 0.6572 with targets at 0.6644 and a stop loss at 0.6530. Estimated duration: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened if the pair rebounds from 0.6572 resistance and breaks below 0.6530, targeting 0.6462. Stop loss — 0.6572.