The franc continues to hold firm against most global currencies with support from macroeconomic data, which remains a key factor behind the Swiss National Bank’s stance. The regulator has kept the interest rate at zero for an extended period and is not expected to change it before the end of the year. The final SNB monetary policy assessment of 2026 is scheduled for 10 December, and more than 90.0% of surveyed economists expect borrowing costs to remain unchanged. According to a survey by the Swiss Bankers Association, officials may keep rates unchanged throughout 2027, with a gradual tightening cycle beginning no earlier than early 2028. However, analysts at UBS Group AG suggested in their latest review that the SNB could deliver two rate hikes, in March and June. Their view is based on market swap pricing and the SNB’s medium-term inflation forecasts, which have risen to 0.7–0.8% for 2026 and 2027. The current SNB stance was confirmed at the latest Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment.
The US dollar is trading near 101.40 in the USDX, opening the week with a slight downward impulse after strengthening late last week amid some easing in US rhetoric regarding the conflict in the Middle East. Capital outflows from government bonds continue, and part of that capital is shifting into the dollar as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be announced on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2): according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged remains high, while expectations for December are also elevated.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting well above the support line of a steady ascending channel with dynamic boundaries at 0.8430–0.8120.
Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the slow ones and continue to diverge, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in the negative zone.
Support levels: 0.8200, 0.8090.
Resistance levels: 0.8280, 0.8380.
Trading scenarios and USD/CHF forecast
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.8200, with a target at 0.8090. Stop-loss — 0.8260. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.8280, with a target at 0.8380. Stop-loss — 0.8200.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.8200 |
| Take Profit | 0.8090 |
| Stop Loss | 0.8260 |
| Key Levels | 0.8090, 0.8200, 0.8280, 0.8380 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.8280 |
| Take Profit | 0.8380 |
| Stop Loss | 0.8200 |
| Key Levels | 0.8090, 0.8200, 0.8280, 0.8380 |
