United States

The U.S. dollar is weakening against the euro, pound, and yen.

Investor focus is on President Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric toward the Federal Reserve. He said he intends to file a lawsuit against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over what he called an over-budget renovation of the central bank’s headquarters, without specifying timing. The White House has for months pressed the Fed to cut rates and is currently considering 11 candidates for the chair role, including Board members Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller, Jefferies strategist David Zervos, and BlackRock fixed-income CIO Rick Rieder, among others.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced hope that Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, will be confirmed to a temporary Fed Board vacancy before the September meeting—an addition that would tilt the committee slightly more dovish and lift the odds of a 50 bps rate cut.

Eurozone

The euro is gaining against the U.S. dollar, weakening versus the pound, and trading mixed against the yen.

Germany CPI: monthly inflation rose from 0.0% to 0.3%; year-over-year held at 2.0%. The EU-harmonized index adjusted from 0.1% to 0.4% m/m and from 2.0% down to 1.8% y/y. Wholesale prices eased from 0.9% to 0.5% m/m and from 0.2% to −0.1% y/y.

Takeaway: inflation pressures continue to moderate across the bloc, supporting the ECB’s scope to continue policy easing if growth momentum slows amid higher U.S. trade tariffs.

United Kingdom

The pound is strengthening versus the euro, yen, and U.S. dollar.

June labor market: unemployment steady at 4.7%; employment growth accelerated from +134k to +238k. Average earnings slowed to 4.6% y/y including bonuses (from 5.0%), while ex-bonus pay stayed at 5.0%. The sector remains resilient despite global trade uncertainty, raising the odds the BoE refrains from further easing. Last week’s 25 bps cut passed by a single vote; with inflation still high and jobs firm, the balance on the MPC could shift back toward the hawks.

Looking ahead, Thursday 08:00 (GMT+2) brings Q2 GDP: preliminary estimates point to growth slowing from 1.3% to 1.0% y/y and from 0.7% to 0.1% q/q—potentially a short-term headwind for sterling.

Japan

The yen is strengthening against the U.S. dollar, weakening versus the pound, and mixed against the euro.

July Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI): in line with expectations at 0.2% m/m (from −0.1%) and 2.6% y/y (from 2.9%)—still well above the BoJ’s 2.0% target. Food and agricultural inputs continue to rise, pressuring household finances and keeping the door open to further policy tightening.

Reuters Tankan (Aug): business sentiment improved from 7 to 9, helped by a U.S.–Japan trade deal. Even so, sentiment could soften again if tariff changes from the U.S. administration weigh on Japan’s industrial sector.

Australia

The Australian dollar is weaker versus the pound, firmer against the U.S. dollar, and mixed against the euro and yen.

Q2 Wages: growth slowed from 0.9% to 0.8% q/q, and held at 3.4% y/y (vs a 3.3% consensus). After more than a year of negative real dynamics, stabilization hints at improving real incomes and consumption. For the RBA, the print argues for a more cautious, less dovish stance ahead.

Oil

Traders are watching the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A diplomatic breakthrough on the Russia–Ukraine conflict could see some sanctions on Russian energy exports eased—raising supply and weighing on prices. Absent progress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs and secondary measures on buyers of Russian barrels will be tightened.

U.S. stocks: API reported a +1.500M bbl build versus a consensus draw of −0.800M. Today at 16:30 (GMT+2), the EIA posts its weekly figures; prelim projections point to a −0.900M draw, which would support crude if confirmed.

As a reminder, FORECK.INFO previously analyzed how a mix of soft U.S. inflation data and mixed macro indicators in the eurozone created a favorable setup for EUR/USD gains. Now, with markets pricing in a 93% probability of a Fed rate cut, bullish expectations for the euro are only strengthening.