EUR/USD Rises Toward 1.1725 Ahead of Fed and ECB Policy Meetings

Additionally, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 20:00 (GMT+2), where the interest rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4.00%. During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may hint at maintaining a dovish stance for the rest of the year or signaling an end to the quantitative tightening (QT) program. The currency is also weighed down by concerns over national debt, the budget deficit, and the ongoing government shutdown — which could become the longest in history.

On Thursday at 12:00 (GMT+2), preliminary data on the Eurozone’s Q3 GDP will be released. According to forecasts, the quarterly growth rate may slow from 1.5% to 1.2%, with annual growth expected at 0.1%. If results exceed expectations, the euro may extend gains toward 1.1725 and above; otherwise, a decline toward the 1.1550 support level is likely. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decision — the rate is expected to remain at 2.15%. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 15:45 (GMT+2) could increase volatility in the pair.

Support and Resistance Levels

The long-term trend remains bullish: this month, the price corrected down from resistance at 1.1725 to the support area and is now trading within a newly formed channel. A rebound from 1.1550 may trigger further upside momentum, and a breakout above 1.1725 would open the way for long positions targeting the September high at 1.1900. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.1550 would extend the correction toward the trend boundary near 1.1400.

In the medium term, the trend remains bearish. In early October, the pair broke below the previous support range of 1.1686–1.1663 and moved into zone 2 (1.1470–1.1449). However, an upward correction is now underway, which may reach the resistance zone at 1.1779–1.1758 — an area favorable for short positions targeting 1.1660 and 1.1542. If the pair consolidates above 1.1779, a bullish move toward 1.1995–1.1974 is expected.

Resistance levels: 1.1730, 1.1900, 1.2085.

Support levels: 1.1570, 1.1400, 1.1200.

Trading Scenarios and EUR/USD Forecast

Long positions can be opened from 1.1570 with a target of 1.1730 and a stop loss at 1.1516. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions can be considered below 1.1516 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop loss at 1.1565.