Euro To US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Slides Toward 1.1633 as Dollar Firms Ahead of ECB Decision

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its policy meeting on Thursday, with the decision due at 15:15 (GMT+2). Analysts expect the regulator to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.15%. If this scenario materializes, it could support the euro. Inflation in the euro area currently stands at 2.2%, only slightly above the ECB’s target, although policymakers also consider other indicators, including the labor market. The unemployment rate remains at 6.4%, while job creation is slowing: employment growth in the third quarter eased to 0.6% from 0.7%, compared with preliminary estimates of 0.5%.

According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the regulator is preparing to revise its economic forecasts for the euro area higher this week. This would be another sign of the region’s relative economic resilience. In September, officials revised their 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.2%, up from 0.9% in June. The ECB believes the bloc’s economy is weathering external challenges better than expected earlier this year. In the third quarter, eurozone GDP grew by 0.2%, supported by increased investment in digital services. Financial markets currently price in around a 40.0% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike by the end of next year, based on swap pricing.

Support and resistance levels

The long-term trend remains bullish: last week, EUR/USD обновила its October 17 high, broke above the 1.1725 resistance level, and consolidated above it. If the downward correction intensifies during today’s session, its next target will be 1.1633, followed by a retest of 1.1725. However, if this level holds, bulls may push the pair toward the annual high near 1.1900. On Monday, the RSI (14) entered overbought territory, triggering a correction, but it has since returned to neutral levels.

The medium-term trend turned bullish earlier this week after the key resistance zone at 1.1706–1.1684 was broken. The next upside target is Zone 2 at 1.1922–1.1900. A modest correction is currently unfolding; if it continues, a test of the trend boundary at 1.1588–1.1566 is expected, after which new long positions could be considered with targets at 1.1685 and 1.1804.

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.2085.

Support levels: 1.1633, 1.1550, 1.1480.

Trading scenarios and EUR/USD forecast

Long positions can be opened from the 1.1633 level with a target at 1.1725 and a stop-loss at 1.1595. Time horizon: 9–12 days.

Short positions can be opened below 1.1580 with a target at 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1627.