Forex investors are focused on the release of the minutes from the September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, though officials were divided on future actions. Many agreed that further monetary easing could be justified, as risks to the labor market now outweigh inflation concerns. They also noted that the new trade tariffs introduced by the Republican administration are unlikely to accelerate price growth. However, only 10 out of 19 Fed officials supported two more rate cuts by year-end, while the rest preferred a more cautious approach. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he supports additional cuts to support employment but warned that persistent inflation above 2.0% could seriously harm the U.S. economy.

Eurozone

The euro is losing value against the U.S. dollar and shows mixed performance in pairs with the yen and the pound.

Germany’s August trade data showed that exports fell by 0.5% after –0.6% a month earlier (forecast +0.3%), while imports decreased by 1.3% after –0.1%, versus an expected –0.5%. As a result, the trade surplus expanded from €14.7 billion to €17.2 billion, exceeding the forecast of €15.2 billion. Analysts note that the German economy remains under pressure from U.S. tariffs and weaker global demand, even though exports to China grew by 5.4% in August. The European Central Bank (ECB) also released its September meeting minutes, confirming that the interest rate would remain unchanged, as the current level is considered sufficient to contain inflation.

United Kingdom

The British pound is declining against the U.S. dollar and shows mixed dynamics versus the yen and the euro.

Traders are watching comments from Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, who stated that inflation expectations in the UK remain too high and that monetary policy must stay restrictive for an extended period. Mann added that stability can only be achieved when households and businesses stop factoring expected price changes into decisions — something that, she noted, has not yet happened. Analysts interpret her remarks as a sign that the Bank of England is likely to keep rates elevated longer than anticipated.

Japan

The yen shows mixed performance against the euro, pound, and U.S. dollar.

Preliminary September machinery orders in Japan showed growth accelerating from 8.5% to 9.9%, confirming the resilience of the industrial sector despite tariff pressure from the U.S. Meanwhile, economic adviser to incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Etsuro Honda, warned the Bank of Japan against another rate hike, citing economic fragility. Former deputy governor Masazumi Wakatabe also commented that achieving the 2.0% inflation target sustainably this year would be difficult, implying no immediate tightening of monetary policy.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against the euro, pound, and yen, while showing mixed performance against the U.S. dollar.

New consumer inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute rose from 4.7% to 4.8%, the highest since June, fueling concerns that the trend could persist into the third and fourth quarters. This reinforces expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will keep borrowing costs higher for longer.

Oil

Oil prices continue to edge higher amid mixed market drivers.

Support for prices comes from OPEC+’s decision to raise production by only 137,000 barrels per day, less than the 274,000–411,000 bpd increase anticipated by analysts. On the other hand, upside momentum is capped by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, set to begin today. Under the deal, hostilities will pause, Israel will partially withdraw troops from Gaza, and Hamas will release several hostages. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed mixed results: crude oil inventories rose by 3.715 million barrels, while distillate and gasoline stocks fell by 2.018 million and 1.601 million barrels, respectively.