The Christmas and New Year holidays begin this week, leading to lower investor activity. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), GDP data for the third quarter will be released; economic growth is expected to slow from 3.8% to 3.2%. Attention is also on recent comments from officials. New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC that he sees no need for a rapid continuation of monetary easing, adding that November inflation data may be distorted. A similar view was expressed by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who noted that before continuing the “dovish” cycle, it is necessary to assess how price pressures evolve, especially as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are expected to be fully reflected in supply chains in the near future.

Eurozone

The euro is gaining against the US dollar but weakening against the pound, while showing mixed dynamics versus the yen.

Today, Chinese authorities announced the introduction of tariffs of up to 42.7% on dairy products (cheese, milk, and cream) from the EU following the results of an anti-subsidy investigation launched in August 2024. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the subsidies caused “substantial damage” to the domestic dairy industry. The tariffs, which will take effect on December 23, will vary: companies that cooperated with the investigation will face a rate of 28.6%, while those that did not cooperate will be subject to a 42.7% tariff. In addition, Bank of Spain Governor and ECB Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá commented on borrowing costs, stating that he sees no reason to adjust interest rates and expects monetary policy to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future.

United Kingdom

The pound is strengthening against the US dollar and the euro, while showing mixed dynamics against the yen.

Today, GDP data for the third quarter were released, showing that quarterly economic growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1%, while annual growth eased from 1.4% to 1.3%. At the same time, business investment rose sharply by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter versus a forecast of –0.3%, and by 2.7% year-on-year against expectations of 0.7%. These figures give experts reason to believe that moderate GDP growth will continue despite higher tax burdens in the new state budget. However, potential strengthening of the indicator is unlikely to affect the Bank of England’s determination to continue cutting borrowing costs; analysts currently expect three more rate adjustments in the first half of 2026.

Japan

The yen is strengthening against the US dollar, while showing mixed dynamics against the euro and the pound.

Forex traders and investors are focused on comments from senior officials. Currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara expressed concern over “one-sided and sharp” fluctuations in the yen following the interest rate hike to 0.75%, warning that authorities are ready to take appropriate measures to prevent further downside — a clear hint at the possibility of new currency interventions. Additionally, in an interview with Reuters, former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai said he is confident the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing costs three more times during Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remaining term, which runs until 2028, bringing the rate to 1.50%. According to Sakurai, the first hike to 1.00% could occur around June or July next year, depending on wage growth dynamics and consumer inflation.

Australia

The Australian dollar is strengthening against its main competitors — the euro, the pound, the yen, and the US dollar.

Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+2), the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting held on December 9 will be released. The regulator kept the interest rate at 3.60%, noting in its accompanying statement growing signs of broader inflation acceleration, which may prove persistent and require close monitoring by policymakers. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that another cut in borrowing costs is unlikely in the near term. Investors will be looking to the minutes for fresh signals regarding the regulator’s next steps and the direction of monetary policy next year.

Oil

Oil prices continued to rise amid a US naval blockade of Venezuela.

This could lead to serious supply disruptions in the global oil market, as the Latin American country currently accounts for about 1.0% of total global exports. Previously, US authorities stated they would detain only tankers under sanctions; however, over the weekend, the military blocked a vessel not on the sanctions list and owned by Chinese companies. The situation is broadly unsettling investors, pushing prices higher.