USD/CHF: Market in Focus
Traders are attempting to anticipate the Fed’s actions at the September 17 meeting, with expectations that the regulator will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, thereby initiating a new cycle of monetary easing. Moreover, consumer inflation has not slowed as sharply as producer inflation, providing another argument in favor of dovish rhetoric: the core Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose another 3.1% year-over-year in August, while the broader measure, as expected, accelerated from 2.7% to 2.9%. In contrast, the core Producer Price Index fell from 3.4% to 2.8%, while markets had expected 3.5%, and the broader indicator dropped from 3.1% to 2.6% compared to forecasts of 3.3%.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar came under pressure from the August Treasury budget report, which showed the deficit widening from –$291.0 billion to –$345.0 billion, while analysts had expected a slight narrowing to –$285.5 billion. Today at 16:00 (GMT+2), markets will receive data on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan, along with the September Consumer Sentiment Index, with forecasts pointing to a likely slowdown from 58.2 to 58.0.
Investors are also assessing comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel, who emphasized that the U.S. dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and that the Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in the international financial system. He also did not rule out the possibility of interest rates being cut into negative territory should conditions warrant. Addressing the consequences of higher tariffs introduced by the White House, Schlegel noted they create significant uncertainty: many companies are reducing investments, negatively impacting the economy, though the overall effect remains to be assessed. Recall that U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 39.0% tariff on Swiss goods — a rate significantly higher than that applied to the EU. Experts warn that Switzerland may eventually see job losses, prompting leading economic associations to call on the Federal Council to implement support measures.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are attempting to turn sideways: the price range is narrowing from the top, reflecting mixed short-term trading dynamics. The MACD is currently trying to reverse upward while maintaining its prior sell signal (the histogram remains below the signal line). The Stochastic, having bounced off the “20” mark, is moderately upward-directed, signaling potential corrective bullish momentum.
Resistance levels: 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8150.
Support levels: 0.7948, 0.7900, 0.7871, 0.7800.
Trading Scenarios and Dollar-Franc Forecast
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Short positions may be opened after a confident breakout below 0.7948 with a target of 0.7850. Stop-loss at 0.8000. Implementation timeframe: 2–3 days.
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A rebound from 0.7948 as support, followed by a breakout above 0.8000, could signal new long positions with a target of 0.8100. Stop-loss at 0.7948.
Scenario
Timeframe: Intraday
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry Point: 0.7945
Take Profit: 0.7850
Stop Loss: 0.8000
Key Levels: 0.7800, 0.7871, 0.7900, 0.7948, 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8150
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 0.8000
Take Profit: 0.8100
Stop Loss: 0.7948
Key Levels: 0.7800, 0.7871, 0.7900, 0.7948, 0.8000, 0.8050, 0.8100, 0.8150