Current Dynamics
During the Asian session, USD/JPY trades around 147.44, setting up for a push toward 146.33. The yen is supported by investor positioning ahead of Friday 01:50 (GMT+2) Japan Q2 GDP, expected to accelerate to 0.1% q/q (from 0.0%) and 0.4% y/y (from −0.2%).
On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), the U.S. Producer Price Index (July) is projected to rise to 0.2% m/m (from 0.0%). A firmer PPI could see the Fed delay any rate increase, lending support to the dollar in the very short term, though most analysts still expect two rate cuts before year‑end. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump extended the U.S.–China “trade truce” by 90 days, keeping reduced tariffs in place (approx. 30% on Chinese imports and 10% on U.S. exports) while negotiations continue. With near‑term escalation risks capped, risk sentiment and dollar demand are steadier.
Trend Overview
Long‑Term
The long‑term bias remains down. Last month, the pair rallied to 150.70, then reversed and broke 148.85, which now acts as resistance. A sustained move below 146.33 would expose 142.50; failure to break lower would likely produce a corrective bounce toward 148.85, where shorts targeting 146.33 would again be attractive.
Price is hovering around EMA(21) and EMA(190), both broadly flat, pointing to a lack of clear short‑ and long‑term momentum. The RSI(14) sits in the neutral zone, keeping both long and short setups viable around levels.
Medium‑Term
The medium‑term trend remains up, but the pair is currently correcting toward trend support at 144.29–143.67. After testing that band, longs toward 147.29, 150.91, and Zone 2 (153.59–152.89) come back into play. A break below 143.67 would be needed to flip the structure and open a deeper move toward 138.23–137.66.
Support & Resistance
Resistance
- 148.85
- 150.70
- 154.80
Support
- 146.33
- 142.50
- 140.25
Trade Setups
Shorts can be considered from 148.85 targeting 146.33, with a stop‑loss at 149.67. Estimated duration: 9–12 days.
Longs can be considered above 149.67 targeting 152.40, with a stop‑loss at 148.55.
| Timeframe | Recommendation | Entry | Take Profit | Stop Loss | Key Levels |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | SELL LIMIT | 148.85 | 146.33 | 149.67 | 140.25, 142.50, 146.33, 148.85, 150.70, 154.80 |
| Weekly (Alt.) | BUY STOP | 149.67+ | 152.40 | 148.55 | 140.25, 142.50, 146.33, 148.85, 150.70, 154.80 |