NQ 100 Gains Ahead of Fed Decision: Rate Cut Expectations Rise

Currently, more than 90.0% of analysts expect the regulator to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% annually. According to a survey conducted by London Stock Exchange Group Plc., the probability of a rate adjustment stands at 90.0%, with two additional changes expected next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a cautious stance, warning against inflationary risk while noting positive momentum in economic recovery. It is worth noting that the labor market outlook still lacks sufficient macroeconomic data: the October report was not released due to the government shutdown, and November statistics will not be published in time for the upcoming decision. Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index slowed from 2.9% to 2.8% year-on-year and remained at 0.2% month-on-month, while the broader indicator accelerated from 2.7% to 2.8%, in line with forecasts. Additionally, Powell’s term expires in May, and the main contender for his position is reportedly White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, known for his dovish views.

Last week, price dynamics of individual equities were mixed. Apple Inc. shares declined 0.7%, while Nvidia Corp. dipped 0.5%. The latter invested 2.0 billion USD in chip design software developer Synopsys Inc. as part of a strategic partnership aimed at integrating GPU development expertise into AI and accelerated computing technologies. The joint press release notes that the collaboration will enable R&D specialists to design, model, and test new products with greater accuracy and lower costs. The transaction price amounted to 414.79 USD per share compared to 418.01 USD at market close. This may imply weakening investor interest in AI projects, which attract heavy funding not only from Nvidia Corp., but also from virtually all major tech giants. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc., and Microsoft Corp. posted gains of 1.8%, 1.2%, and 0.5%, respectively.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands continue moderate growth: the price range is expanding, clearing the path for buyers to target new highs. The MACD indicator is rising, maintaining a steady buy signal (the histogram is positioned above the signal line). Stochastic is holding above the 80 mark, indicating overbought risks in the very short term.

Resistance levels: 25,811.4, 26,128.5, 26,450.0, 26,750.0.

Support levels: 25,524.1, 25,363.9, 25,126.6, 24,912.5.

Trading Scenarios and NQ 100 Forecast

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 25,811.4 with a target of 26,450.0. Stop-loss — 25,524.1. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after a pullback from 25,811.4 and a breakout of 25,524.1 with a target of 24,912.5. Stop-loss — 25,811.4.