Last week it was reported that, following a recall of 200,000 vehicles from its subsidiary Porsche, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) ordered Volkswagen management to withdraw 356,649 vehicles sold in the United States due to a software defect affecting the rearview camera display. The malfunction may lead to incorrect image rendering, creating potential accident risks. The specific list of affected models has not yet been disclosed, but the NHTSA decision is expected to have a noticeable impact on sales volumes in the first half of the year.
The company’s fourth-quarter earnings report is scheduled for release on March 10 and may show a decline in quarterly revenue from €87.38 billion to €85.66 billion. Earnings per share are expected to come in around €4.68, compared with €6.25 previously. Volkswagen’s dividend policy also reflects pressure on financial performance: the current annual payout stands at €6.30 per share, down from €9.00 earlier. In 2026, dividend yield is projected at 4.0–4.5%, which remains close to the sector median of 4.64%.
Taken together, these factors continue to weigh heavily on Volkswagen AG shares, limiting the potential for a short-term recovery and increasing volatility in the equity market.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the instrument is attempting to rebound from the resistance line of an ascending channel with dynamic boundaries at 112.00–94.00.
Technical indicators have long turned higher but are showing an unstable buy signal that is losing momentum: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain above the signal line but are converging toward it, while the AO histogram is forming new corrective bars in the positive zone.
Support levels: 101.30, 94.70.
Resistance levels: 106.90, 116.50.
Trading scenarios and Volkswagen Group price outlook
Short positions may be considered after a confirmed break below 101.30, with a target at 94.70 and a stop-loss at 104.00. Time horizon: 7 days or more.
Long positions may be considered after a confirmed break above 106.90, with a target at 116.50 and a stop-loss at 103.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 101.25 |
| Take Profit | 94.70 |
| Stop Loss | 104.00 |
| Key levels | 94.70, 101.30, 106.90, 116.50 |
Alternative scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 106.95 |
| Take Profit | 116.50 |
| Stop Loss | 103.00 |
| Key levels | 94.70, 101.30, 106.90, 116.50 |
