Investor and forex traders' attention is focused on March's labor market data, confirming its stability: unemployment decreased to 4.3%, although experts had expected it to remain at 4.4%. The number of non-farm jobs increased by 178,000, significantly higher than the expected 65,000, while the previous number was revised from -92,000 to -133,000. Hourly wages slowed from 0.4% to 0.2% month-on-month, instead of the expected 0.3%, and from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year, against 3.7% expected. Experts noted that most of the job growth was in healthcare, and positive dynamics were largely driven by seasonal and weather factors. In light of this data, the Federal Reserve may take a wait-and-see approach, maintaining high interest rates for a longer period. Analysts at Citigroup Inc. now suggest that borrowing costs may be reduced by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, rather than June, July, and September, as previously expected. Geopolitical signals remain contradictory: over the weekend, US President Donald Trump again issued an ultimatum to Iranian authorities demanding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, warning that otherwise Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure would be destroyed. On the other hand, in an interview with Fox News, the politician admitted that negotiations with Tehran are ongoing and expressed optimism about reaching a peace agreement within 24 hours.
Eurozone
The euro is moderately strengthening against the yen and the US dollar, but weakening against the pound.
Today is Easter in the Eurozone countries, so financial institutions are closed, and investor activity is low. Meanwhile, the head of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, stated that the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary rhetoric will depend on the scale and nature of energy supply disruptions caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: if the sharp rise in hydrocarbons is temporary, no interest rate adjustment will be needed soon, and tightening monetary policy should be expected if the impact is strong and prolonged, negatively affecting medium-term inflation expectations and wage dynamics.
United Kingdom
The pound is strengthening against the euro, yen, and US dollar.
Today, financial institutions in the UK are closed for Easter, and investors are preparing for the release of March business activity data at 10:30 (GMT+2): it is expected that the service sector indicator will drop from 53.9 to 51.2, and the composite indicator will decrease from 53.7 to 51.0, confirming the slowdown in growth in leading sectors of the economy and putting pressure on the national currency.
Japan
The yen is moderately weakening against the euro and pound but strengthening against the US dollar.
According to the Bank of Japan's quarterly regional economic report, the rise in hydrocarbon prices and disruptions in energy supply transportation due to the Middle East conflict could damage the economy, and some companies in certain regions are already feeling the effects of rising raw material prices and supply chain disruptions. Their management fears an increase in pressure on corporate profits and consumption. Meanwhile, representatives of most organizations stated that they intend to increase wages by the same amount as the previous year, but these plans may change in case of further geopolitical tension.
Australia
The Australian dollar is strengthening against the yen, euro, and US dollar, but has mixed dynamics against the pound.
Financial institutions in Australia are closed for Easter, and investors are assessing comments from Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who stated that the government had secured fuel supplies until the end of May, whereas they were previously guaranteed only until mid-April. The official also called for the quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to minimize the economic consequences for the country and the world and noted that the fuel in the state reserves would last for 39 days for gasoline, 29 days for diesel, and 29 days for jet fuel, which is roughly the level seen at the beginning of the US-Iran conflict.
Oil
Morning growth in oil prices has been followed by a decrease, but overall, the sector is under the influence of several contradictory geopolitical signals.
US President Donald Trump announced plans to intensify attacks on Iran's energy and transport facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. However, Reuters sources in Pakistan report that a peace agreement may be reached soon. According to them, a two-stage plan has been developed, which includes an immediate ceasefire for 15-20 days, the opening of free navigation in the area, and further negotiations in Islamabad. It is expected that this agreement will include Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. US and Iranian officials declined to comment on this information.
