Investor and forex trader attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's April 28–29 meeting minutes, which showed that most board members believed "some further policy tightening would likely be appropriate" if inflation remains persistently above the 2.0% target. Many officials indicated that language implying a possible policy easing should be removed from future statements. It is worth noting that these views were expressed before the April inflation data was published — data that showed a significant increase in price pressures — meaning officials' hawkish sentiment has likely intensified further since then.
The minutes also noted that policymakers had "broadly concluded" that borrowing costs should be held in the 3.50–3.75% range for longer than previously anticipated, with the vast majority highlighting increased risks of inflation remaining elevated for a prolonged period. Markets are also monitoring the situation in the Middle East: Iranian officials stated today that they are reviewing the latest package of peace proposals from the White House. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump once again warned that if he does not receive the "right" answers from Tehran, open hostilities could resume.
Eurozone
The euro is weakening against the pound and the US dollar, while showing mixed dynamics against the yen.
Preliminary May business activity data for the eurozone were published today and came in broadly weak: the manufacturing PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.4 points — a larger decline than the 51.7 forecast — while the services index dropped from 47.6 to 46.4 against an expected 47.8, and the composite indicator fell from 48.8 to 47.5. German data showed manufacturing correcting from 51.4 to 49.9 and services rising from 46.9 to 47.8, while the composite index edged up from 48.4 to 48.6. The readings are under pressure from rising living costs, which have driven a significant decline in demand for goods and services and led to staff reductions across companies. Also notable were the latest comments from Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn, who stated that the eurozone is moving along an "adverse scenario" combining economic slowdown and rising inflation — a dynamic that could provide the ECB with an argument for further monetary tightening.
United Kingdom
The pound is strengthening against the euro and the yen, but weakening against the US dollar.
Preliminary May PMI data published today came in below analyst expectations: the manufacturing index held at 53.7 points against a forecast of 52.9, while the services reading fell from 52.7 to 47.9 — entering stagnation territory — and the composite indicator dropped from 52.6 to 48.5. UK business activity contracted at its fastest pace in more than a year, driven by rising fuel costs and raw material supply disruptions. New orders also rose, but this was attributed to clients front-loading purchases ahead of expected price increases. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey commented yesterday that the central bank has time to assess the impact of the Iranian crisis on the economy before adjusting monetary parameters, and forecast a slowdown in economic growth for the current year.
Japan
The yen is losing ground against the pound and the US dollar, while showing mixed dynamics against the euro.
April trade data published today showed export volumes surging 14.8% — significantly exceeding the 9.3% forecast — while imports grew 9.7% against an expected 8.3%, resulting in a narrowing of the trade surplus from ¥643.0 billion to ¥301.9 billion. Japanese exports expanded at their fastest pace in five months, driven by semiconductor shipments — up 15.5% to China and 9.5% to the United States. Combined with the strong first-quarter GDP data released yesterday, today's figures confirm the resilience of the Japanese economy, which is so far holding up well against the energy and tariff crises. This could push the Bank of Japan toward further monetary tightening in the near term. Some board members are already openly calling for action: Junko Koeda stated that the central bank should begin raising interest rates, as price pressures from the Middle East conflict could drive core inflation well above the 2.0% target.
Australia
The Australian dollar is posting moderate losses against its major peers — the euro, the pound, the yen, and the US dollar.
The focus today is on April labor market data, which came in weak: the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.5%, reaching its highest level in four and a half years, while total employment fell by 18,600 and full-time employment declined by 10,700. The sector has clearly weakened against the backdrop of the ongoing energy and tariff crises, prompting revisions to monetary policy forecasts — only 8.0% of traders now expect a rate hike at the June meeting, down from 20.0% previously.
Oil
Oil prices resumed their upward move today following reports that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei may have issued an order banning the export of enriched uranium — a possibility that had previously been considered a basis for further peace negotiations. No official confirmation has been published, but analysts are concerned that the fundamental backdrop could push US President Donald Trump toward resuming military operations on Iranian territory.
Additional upward pressure came from the API weekly inventory report released yesterday: crude oil stocks fell by 7.863 million barrels, gasoline inventories declined by 1.548 million barrels, and only distillate stocks recorded an increase of 0.372 million barrels.
