USD/CHF Forecast: Swiss Data Put 0.8050 in Focus

Switzerland’s economic calendar will be the main domestic driver this week. On Thursday at 09:00 (GMT+2), the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs will publish its final second-quarter GDP estimate. Market forecasts point to growth of 1.7% quarter-on-quarter, compared with 0.7% previously, and 0.9% year-on-year, up from 0.5%. The release follows an earlier flash estimate of 1.5% quarterly growth.

Shortly before that, at 08:30 (GMT+2), the Federal Statistical Office will release August inflation figures. Consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged month-on-month after falling by 0.1% in July, while annual inflation may accelerate from 0.4% to 0.6%. Such figures would remain comfortably within the Swiss National Bank’s 0–2% price-stability range and reduce pressure on the regulator to change its current policy stance.

The US Dollar Index is holding near 99.50 after opening the week with a limited pullback. The currency strengthened on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to stress that inflation remains too high and may require a tighter policy response. The Dollar’s reaction to those comments was also reflected in our latest USD/JPY forecast.

Friday’s US employment report, due at 14:30 (GMT+2), remains the main obstacle to a further increase in borrowing costs. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by approximately 50.0 thousand in August, indicating continued cooling in the labour market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate increase has risen from approximately 44.0% last week to 66.4%. The December distribution assigns a 40.3% probability to rates standing 50 basis points above their current level, implying two quarter-point increases rather than a single half-point move.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, USD/CHF remains well above the support line of the established ascending channel, whose dynamic boundaries are located near 0.8250–0.7950.

Technical indicators suggest that bearish pressure is easing. The fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are approaching the slow line from below, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars in negative territory.

Support levels: 0.8050, 0.7950.

Resistance levels: 0.8120, 0.8200.

USD/CHF Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.8120, with a target at 0.8200. Stop-loss: 0.8070. Time frame: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.8050, with a target at 0.7950. Stop-loss: 0.8120.