Brent Oil Forecast: Break Above $93.75 Targets $100

Markets entered last week expecting the immediate risk of direct military escalation to ease after Washington shifted towards economic pressure on Tehran through secondary sanctions. That assessment changed over the weekend when US forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting American bases in Jordan. The first direct exchange in more than a month reversed the recent decline in oil prices and strengthened the recovery discussed in our previous Brent Crude Oil forecast.

President Donald Trump has since threatened a strong response and published AI-generated videos depicting explosions at Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. No attack on the island has taken place, but the message has increased concerns that future strikes could target energy infrastructure. Such an escalation would further restrict Iranian exports and raise the risk of a broader regional supply shock.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited. According to Kpler data, only five visible commodity vessels crossed the waterway on Monday, compared with a ten-day average of around fourteen. None were liquid tankers. The figures exclude ships operating with their transponders switched off, but they still show that normal commercial traffic has not been restored.

Another source of support is the continued decline in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Official data showed that crude stocks in the reserve fell by 3.1 million barrels last week to 286.6 million barrels, their lowest level since November 1982. The drawdown is part of an agreement to release 172.0 million barrels. If withdrawals continue, Washington will have less capacity to offset another major supply disruption through emergency releases.

The new US-backed oil agreement with Venezuela may provide a counterweight over the longer term. Under the arrangement, North American Blue Energy Partners will receive a 100-year lease covering seventeen Venezuelan oilfields with estimated reserves of approximately 65.0 billion barrels. The United States will take a 35% stake in the parent company and receive 20% of production. However, expanding output will require substantial investment and infrastructure work, meaning the deal is unlikely to deliver enough additional supply to influence prices in the near term.

For now, the fundamental picture remains supportive for Brent. Restricted traffic through Hormuz, shrinking US emergency reserves and the possibility of further attacks outweigh the distant prospect of higher Venezuelan production. A sustained move towards 100.00 would also fit the conditional scenario examined in the Bank of America oil price outlook.

Support and Resistance Levels

Brent has resumed its advance within an ascending triangle whose upper boundary is located at 93.75, the Murrey [6/8] level. A confirmed breakout could open the way towards 100.00, corresponding to Murrey [8/8] and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 106.25 at Murrey [+2/8] and 112.10 near the yearly highs.

A decline and consolidation below the middle Bollinger Band at 87.50, the Murrey [4/8] level, would invalidate the immediate bullish setup. In that case, Brent could break through the lower boundary of the formation and retreat towards 81.25, 75.00 and 68.75.

Technical indicators maintain a buy signal. The Bollinger Bands and Stochastic Oscillator are turning higher, while the MACD histogram remains stable in positive territory.

Support levels: 87.50, 81.25, 75.00, 68.75.

Resistance levels: 93.75, 100.00, 106.25, 112.10.

Brent Crude Oil Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Long positions may be considered above 93.75, with targets at 100.00, 106.25 and 112.10 and a stop-loss at 89.00. Time horizon: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be considered below 87.50, with targets at 81.25, 75.00 and 68.75 and a stop-loss at 90.50.