The latest rebound has coincided with a decline in expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening in the near term. July U.S. inflation data showed further moderation, with headline consumer inflation slowing from 3.5% to 3.4% year over year and core CPI easing from 2.6% to 2.5%.
The labor market has also shown clearer signs of cooling. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Meanwhile, July retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% month over month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, adding another indication that consumer demand softened during the month.
Taken together, the data have reduced the urgency for another Federal Reserve rate increase at the September meeting. Market-implied probabilities tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool have moved lower following the latest inflation, employment and retail-sales releases, although these estimates remain highly sensitive to incoming economic data and can change significantly during the trading session.
A less aggressive Federal Reserve outlook can provide some support to Bitcoin by reducing pressure on the U.S. dollar and improving demand for higher-risk and alternative assets. However, monetary conditions remain only one part of the current BTC/USD outlook.
Regulatory uncertainty in the United States continues to limit bullish momentum. Senate consideration of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, has moved into September. According to the U.S. Senate schedule, the cloture motion on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 is set to ripen on September 15 at 2:15 p.m.
This is a procedural step rather than a final vote on the bill, and passage remains uncertain as lawmakers continue negotiating several politically sensitive provisions. The broader legislative dispute and remaining obstacles are examined in FORECK.INFO's CLARITY Act update.
The cryptocurrency industry also faced another delay from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC cancelled its August 14 open meeting, where commissioners had been scheduled to consider whether to issue a proposal creating a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets.
The SEC notice confirms that the meeting was cancelled. This does not mean the proposed framework has been rejected, but formal consideration has been postponed and no replacement date has yet been announced.
On the positive side, the market is now looking toward the inaugural meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Innovation Advisory Committee on August 20. The committee includes executives and representatives from major crypto and financial companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to the CFTC, the meeting will focus on crypto regulation, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. The crypto session is expected to address the lack of a comprehensive federal market-structure framework, overlapping regulatory jurisdictions, cybersecurity and possible steps regulators can take under their existing authority while Congress continues working on legislation.
Support and Resistance Levels
BTC/USD has been trading sideways for a second consecutive month within the 65,625.00–62,500.00 range, corresponding to the Murrey [6/8]–[4/8] levels and the lower Bollinger Band. A confirmed break below 62,500.00 could open the way toward 59,375.00, the Murrey [2/8] level, followed by 57,000.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and 53,125.00, the Murrey [–2/8] level.
Conversely, a breakout above the upper boundary at 65,625.00 could strengthen bullish momentum and support a move toward 69,460.00, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 75,000.00, the Murrey [2/8] level on the weekly time frame.
Technical indicators remain mixed. The Bollinger Bands have shifted into a horizontal formation, while the MACD histogram remains close to the zero line with limited momentum. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is turning higher from the oversold zone, supporting the possibility of a short-term recovery.
Resistance levels: 65,625.00, 69,460.00, 75,000.00.
Support levels: 62,500.00, 59,375.00, 57,000.00, 53,125.00.
BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Forecast
Short positions may be considered after a decline and consolidation below 62,500.00, with targets at 59,375.00, 57,000.00 and 53,125.00 and a stop-loss at 64,700.00. Time horizon: 5–7 days.
Long positions may be considered after a rise and consolidation above 65,625.00, with targets at 69,460.00 and 75,000.00 and a stop-loss at 63,200.00.
