Ethereum is under pressure from several factors: the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause monetary easing at its December meeting, heightened geopolitical risks, and uncertainty surrounding the future of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. As a result, investors continue shifting away from risk assets toward traditional safe havens.
Negative sentiment among both retail and institutional crypto participants is reflected in the Fear & Greed Index, which remains deep in “extreme fear” territory at 11. Outflows from crypto ETFs also continue. According to Farside Investors, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank might temporarily move away from its dovish stance, the balance of Ethereum ETFs fell by more than $1.4 billion, or roughly 7% of total AUM. For Bitcoin ETFs, the decline reached 4% — suggesting that investors still view BTC as the more resilient crypto asset.
On-chain activity in the Ethereum network is also slowing, putting further pressure on demand while increasing supply. Monthly ETH deposits have dropped by 13% to a four-month low of $74 billion. Trading volume on Ethereum-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs) reached $17.4 billion over the past week — down 27% compared with the previous month.
Overall, fundamental factors point to further downside pressure on ETH/USD in the near term.
Support and Resistance Levels
The pair is forming a medium-term bearish trend as it corrects lower toward the long-term upward trajectory. Last week, ETH exited its descending channel and consolidated below 3125.00 (Murray level [2/8], 50% Fibonacci retracement), opening the way toward 2500.00 (Murray level [0/8]) and 2187.50 (Murray level [–1/8]).
If the price breaks above 3750.00 (Murray level [4/8], above the middle Bollinger Band), a bullish reversal may begin with potential targets near the channel’s upper boundary at 4375.00 (Murray [6/8]) or even 5000.00 (Murray [8/8]). However, this scenario currently appears less likely.
Technical indicators maintain a bearish outlook: Bollinger Bands slope downward, the MACD histogram is expanding in negative territory, and the Stochastic oscillator is flat in the oversold zone.
Resistance levels: 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00.
Support levels: 3125.00, 2500.00, 2187.50.
ETH/USD Trading Scenarios and Outlook
Short positions may be considered from 2960.00, targeting 2500.00 and 2187.50, with a stop-loss at 3300.00. Expected duration: 5–7 days.
Long positions may be considered above 3750.00 with targets at 4375.00 and 5000.00, and a stop-loss at 3360.00.
Primary Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 2960.00 |
| Take Profit | 2500.00, 2187.50 |
| Stop Loss | 3300.00 |
| Key Levels | 2187.50, 2500.00, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 3770.00 |
| Take Profit | 4375.00, 5000.00 |
| Stop Loss | 3360.00 |
| Key Levels | 2187.50, 2500.00, 3125.00, 3750.00, 4375.00, 5000.00 |