Ethereum (ETH/USD) Analysis — Price Holds Above 4529, Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows Support Growth

According to analysts, Ethereum retains its status as one of the key instruments of the global financial market. In September 2025, the network recorded several historic highs: demand, staking volumes, and transaction activity reached peak levels. Moreover, funds doubled their Ethereum reserves since April 2025 to 6.5M ETH, while large holders with balances between 10.0K and 100.0K ETH now control over 20.0M ETH. The total staking volume amounted to 36.15M ETH, reducing circulating supply and strengthening confidence in the network, while daily smart contract calls exceeded 12.0M. The ETH exchange supply ratio hit a record low of 0.14M, continuing its decline since July 20. In addition, Ethereum ETF balances are regularly replenished. Between September 8 and 12 alone, inflows totaled $638.0M, in sharp contrast to outflows of $788.0M the previous week. Analysts see this as a sign of shifting sentiment: traders are actively adding ETH to portfolios, creating the groundwork for testing the 5000.00 level in the near term.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation announced new privacy initiatives: the plan includes transfers based on the L2 PlasmaFold network, confidential voting, and ZK-based identification solutions (zero-knowledge proofs) that allow data verification without disclosure. Representatives note this will make private operations scalable, affordable, and compliant with technical and legal standards.

Today the two-day US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting begins. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, there is a 96.0% probability of a 25 basis point cut, starting a new dovish cycle. This is supported by weak labor market data: in August, only 22.0K new non-farm jobs were created, pushing unemployment up to 4.3%. Later, the US Department of Labor revised employment figures for the 12 months through early March downward by 911.0K. Previously, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the labor market is in a “strange equilibrium,” with declines in both labor demand and supply. Rising risks of job cuts could soon trigger mass layoffs and higher unemployment. Clearly, a rate cut would drive further downward correction in the US dollar.

Support and resistance levels

The daily chart shows a local correction: the price is still moving above the resistance line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 4470.00–3000.00.

Technical indicators confirm a renewed bullish scenario, maintaining a fragile buy signal: EMA ranges on the Alligator indicator are directed upward, with fast moving averages still above the signal line, while the AO histogram has recently entered the buy zone, forming new bullish bars steadily moving away from zero.

Resistance levels: 4770.00, 5290.00.

Support levels: 4237.00, 3673.00.

Trading scenarios and Ethereum forecast

In case of a reversal and local growth with price consolidation above the 4770.00 resistance, buy positions will be relevant with a target at 5290.00. Stop-loss — 4500.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

If the decline continues and price consolidates below the 4237.00 support, sell positions will be relevant with a target at 3673.00. Stop-loss — 4500.00.