Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH/USD under pressure ahead of Fed meeting as regulatory uncertainty persists

Investors remain concerned about the risk of another shutdown of the U.S. federal government, as well as the outcome of the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, scheduled for tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+2). As a result, market participants are staying cautious, and overall trading volumes remain relatively low. Over the weekend, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that his party would block the passage of new budget legislation in response to what Democrats describe as excessively harsh actions by law enforcement during unrest in Minnesota. Representatives of the Democratic Party argue that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) violated civil rights and therefore refuse to support its funding. The renewed risk of a shutdown reduces investor appetite for risk assets, prompting capital flows into safe havens such as gold, which continues to set record highs. In addition, market participants are awaiting the Fed meeting and the release of earnings reports from major technology companies. Officials are widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.75% amid strong economic growth (GDP expanded by 4.4% in Q3 2025), a stable labor market, and still-elevated inflation (2.7% in December). This outcome is largely priced in, so investors will be most focused on any signals regarding the regulator’s next steps later this year. Most likely, policymakers will point to maintaining the current monetary policy stance in the medium term, which would support the U.S. dollar against alternative assets.

Finally, members of the crypto community are unsettled by delays in developing a clear legal framework for digital-asset companies. Today it was reported that the Senate Agriculture Committee postponed consideration of its version of a bill on cryptocurrency market structure, known as the “Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act.” Consultations between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which were expected to clearly delineate the powers of the two agencies in regulating digital assets, have also been postponed indefinitely. Nevertheless, Joseph Shalom, CEO of SharpLink Gaming Inc., an online marketing company focused on the sports betting sector, stated that large institutional investors continue to view Ethereum as a global infrastructure for asset tokenization. Currently, more than 65.0% of all stablecoins and tokenized assets are issued on Ethereum, which is ten times more than on Solana. Overall, trader sentiment remains negative, as reflected by the Fear and Greed Index holding in the “fear” zone at a reading of 29.

Support and Resistance Levels

The price has returned to the 2770.00 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), which for a long time served as the lower boundary of the medium-term sideways range. A sustained break below this level would open the way for further declines toward 2656.25 (Murray level [–2/8]) and 2500.00 (Murray level [4/8], W1). The resistance zone at 3165.00–3125.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement, Murray level [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) is seen as key for bulls: a breakout above it would signal a resumption of growth toward 3359.38 (Murray level [7/8]) and 3560.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Technical indicators do not provide a unified signal: Bollinger Bands are pointing downward, the MACD remains stable in negative territory, while the Stochastic oscillator is turning up from oversold levels.

It is also worth noting that on the weekly chart, Bollinger Bands are turning lower, and the price action shows signs of a “flag” formation within a downtrend, making further downside movement the more likely scenario.

Resistance levels: 3165.00, 3359.38, 3560.00.

Support levels: 2770.00, 2656.25, 2500.00.

Trading Scenarios and ETH/USD Forecast

Short positions can be considered below the 2770.00 level with targets at 2656.25 and 2500.00, and a stop-loss at 2855.00. Time horizon: 5–7 days.

Long positions can be considered above the 3165.00 level with targets at 3359.38 and 3560.00, and a stop-loss at 3040.00.