Speaking with NovaDius President Nate Geraci, Bloomberg’s ETF strategist James Seyffart dismissed the idea of the world’s largest asset manager making a last-minute entry into the Solana ETF race. “That would be completely off-base,” he argued, noting that smaller issuers have already spent months working closely with the SEC to prepare compliant filings.

The current roster of applicants includes VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise, each positioning to capture first-mover advantage in what many see as the next big spot ETF launch after Ethereum. On prediction platform Polymarket, approval odds for a Solana spot ETF in 2025 stand at an eye-catching 99%.

Price Action and Market Context

At press time, Solana is trading around $186.00, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours and 13.1% over the past week. The latest leg higher has been fueled not only by ETF optimism but also by notable corporate accumulation. Upexi, for example, recently disclosed a $200M purchase of SOL for its treasury — a move interpreted as a vote of confidence in the network’s long-term utility.

Why Seyffart Opposes a BlackRock SOL ETF — For Now

Seyffart’s stance is rooted in market fairness. While BlackRock has already dominated the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF landscape — pulling in approximately $57.8B and $9.7B in net inflows respectively — swooping in at the eleventh hour on Solana could undercut the months of regulatory groundwork laid by smaller competitors.

BlackRock has publicly denied any current plans to file for a Solana ETF or an XRP ETF. According to Seyffart, this isn’t a strategic risk: nearly 90% of total crypto market capitalization remains concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, meaning the firm’s current focus still captures the vast majority of institutional demand.

Key Takeaways

  • Price surge: SOL crosses $185 with strong weekly gains.
  • ETF race: Smaller issuers lead with active SEC filings; approval odds near 99% for 2025.
  • BlackRock’s position: No current SOL ETF plans; dominance in BTC and ETH ETFs remains unmatched.
  • Market drivers: Treasury acquisitions and broader crypto momentum support price strength.

Bottom line: While a Solana ETF launch in the U.S. looks highly probable next year, BlackRock’s absence from the filing list may be intentional, leaving room for other issuers to secure first-mover status. For SOL, the combination of corporate treasury buys, near-certain ETF odds, and favorable technical momentum keeps the bullish case intact — regardless of whether the world’s largest asset manager joins the party.