Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Week With CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales on Deck

Bitcoin and Altcoins Rebound Ahead of Key Data

After a weak start to the month, Bitcoin has recovered about 4% over the past week, reclaiming the $118,000 level. The rebound is even stronger in altcoins: Ethereum (ETH) is up 21%, Solana (SOL) 12%, and Ripple (XRP) 10%.

The crypto sector has mirrored the rally in the Nasdaq 100, which has been setting new all-time highs, erasing last week’s losses and restoring bullish momentum ahead of a macro-heavy week.

Key Economic Events to Watch

Tuesday, August 12, 2025 – U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

At 14:30 CET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July’s CPI data. June inflation came in at 2.7% year-over-year, above the forecast of 2.6%. Analysts now expect a further rise to 2.8%.

A CPI print at or above 2.8% would be another warning sign for the Fed, potentially reducing the likelihood of a September rate cut. That could trigger profit-taking in equities and weigh on crypto prices.

If CPI matches or falls below expectations, it would give the Fed more room to ease policy — likely boosting U.S. stocks and risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Thursday, August 14, 2025 – Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims

At 14:30 CET, July’s PPI data will be released. In June, producer prices rose 2.3% — well below forecasts of 2.5%. For July, analysts expect a rebound to 2.5%.

If PPI meets or exceeds expectations, it would signal that higher tariffs are raising production costs, making an immediate Fed rate cut less likely. Equities and crypto could react bearishly.

A softer-than-expected PPI, as in June, could strengthen the case for a September cut — positive for risk assets

The same day, weekly initial jobless claims will be published. Last week’s reading was 226,000, above the 221,000 forecast. This week, expectations are for 220,000. Higher-than-expected claims would reinforce signs of labor market weakness and possible economic stagnation. Lower-than-expected claims could lift market sentiment.

Friday, August 15, 2025 – Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

At 14:30 CET, the U.S. Census Bureau will release July retail sales data. June’s +0.6% month-over-month growth smashed expectations of +0.1%. Analysts now see July sales rising another +0.5%.

Strong retail sales often weaken the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and support Bitcoin. Weak sales, however, would signal waning consumer demand — potentially tied to trade tensions and rising prices — which could weigh on both equities and crypto.

At 16:00 CET, the University of Michigan will publish preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations for the next 12 months. July’s final sentiment reading was 61.7, slightly below the forecast of 61.8. August’s preliminary estimate is 62.2.

If sentiment falls short, it would signal renewed caution among consumers, potentially dampening market optimism. Inflation expectations are forecast at 4.8%, up from July’s final 4.5%. A reading at or above that level could spook markets. A drop would likely spark a positive reaction in both stocks and crypto.

Bottom Line:

This week’s CPI, PPI, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data will be pivotal in shaping expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. For crypto traders, softer inflation and strong retail demand could fuel further gains, while hotter inflation and weak spending may pressure BTC and altcoins.