Institutional sentiment is cooling: Over $1 billion has exited Bitcoin spot ETFs after a period of steady inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone saw outflows of $292 million, the highest in nine weeks. Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced $500 million in outflows, reversing several weeks of net inflows.
BTC Seasonality: August Correction Ahead?
Historically, August is Bitcoin’s weakest month. Since inception, BTC typically drops around 7% during the summer lull. A breakdown of monthly returns from 2013 to 2024 highlights this trend.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +5.2% | +7.1% | -2.3% | +3.8% | +4.5% | -1.9% | -1.45% | -7.0% | +2.7% | +3.3% | +8.1% | +6.2% |
Source: Coinglass
The July median for Bitcoin is highlighted at -1.45%, underscoring the typical summer correction.
Macro Factors: Fed Policy & Institutional Sentiment
- Goldman Sachs now expects three consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September. Historically, easier monetary policy has boosted crypto markets.
- The Fear & Greed Index is at 55 — neutral.
- The Altcoin Season Index reads 44, still favoring Bitcoin dominance.
- Bitcoin dominance remains at 60%, an extremely high level in the current cycle.