Additional downside pressure came from the Federal Reserve's cautious stance. At the most recent FOMC meeting, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.50%, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling that further policy steps will depend on incoming data and noting that trade-driven inflation could rise, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
July’s labor market report showed unemployment rising to 4.2% and a modest 73,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, reinforcing the case for higher-for-longer rates. Against this backdrop, digital asset investment flows weakened sharply: the aggregate balance of US Bitcoin ETFs dropped by $642.9 million last week. While the correction in crypto has so far remained orderly, some analysts believe persistent trade tensions could eventually position Bitcoin and other digital tokens as "safe-haven" assets, especially if risk aversion increases.
The market is also supported in the medium term by the US government's constructive stance on crypto regulation. President Trump recently signed the GENIUS Act—providing a national framework for US stablecoins—while SEC Chair Paul Atkins and the CFTC have announced new initiatives to establish clear digital asset rules. As the regulatory environment matures, large institutional interest in Bitcoin is likely to grow.
Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
BTC/USD is rebounding and is approaching the 115,625 resistance (Murray [5/8]). A firm breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward 120,000 (Fibonacci 0.0%) and 125,000 (Murray [8/8]). For bears, the 112,500 zone remains the critical pivot; a decisive move below would open the door for a slide toward 106,250 (Murray [2/8]).
Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands are starting to slope down, MACD is losing momentum in positive territory, while Stochastic is pointing higher, suggesting the possibility of short-term recovery but with limited confirmation.
- Resistance: 115,625; 120,000; 125,000
- Support: 112,500; 106,250
BTC/USD: Key support and resistance zones this weekBTC/USD Trading Scenarios (Weekly Timeframe)
- Main scenario (Buy Stop):
Entry: 115,660
Take Profit: 120,000; 125,000
Stop Loss: 112,600 - Alternative scenario (Sell Stop):
Entry: 112,450
Take Profit: 106,250
Stop Loss: 115,600 - Key levels to watch: 106,250; 112,500; 115,625; 120,000; 125,000
Outlook
The path forward for BTC/USD will hinge on macroeconomic headlines and investor risk appetite. A sustained break above 115,625 should fuel bullish momentum toward 120,000 and 125,000, while a reversal below 112,500 would expose the market to further downside. Medium-term, institutional flows and evolving US regulation are likely to shape the next major trend in Bitcoin.