Sideways Breakout Turns Bearish: Key Levels in Focus

After several weeks of sideways consolidation, BTC broke decisively below its $116,000 support last week, triggering a drop toward the previous cycle high near $112,000. Even a record 21,000 BTC purchase by Michael Saylor’s Strategy failed to reverse the trend, highlighting the weakness typical for August—historically one of Bitcoin’s worst trading months.

Further pressure came as U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second-largest net outflows since launch on August 1, reflecting heightened caution among institutional investors. Sector-wide profit-taking followed a sharp sell-off in the S&P 500 and weak Q2 numbers from Coinbase, which saw its stock plunge double digits, adding weight to the crypto market’s decline.

Technically, Bitcoin managed to close above its 50-day EMA ($111,903) after briefly testing this level, but remains pinned below both the 9-day and 20-day EMAs—a sign of ongoing weakness. Only a decisive move above $116,358 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) could rekindle bullish momentum and open a path toward the upper boundary of the emerging downtrend channel. The $117,462 resistance—defended repeatedly in recent weeks—remains the near-term ceiling for bulls.

BTC/USD candlestick chart with key support and resistance levelsBTC/USD candlestick chart with key support and resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements, and moving averages. Coinbase

What Bitcoin Rate to Expect at the End of August: Technical & Market Analysis

Bullish Targets

  • $115,769–$116,358 (38.2% Fib zone)
  • $117,462 (key resistance)
  • $118,868–$119,926
  • $120,988
  • $122,783–$123,568 (cycle highs)
  • $126,839 (150% Fibonacci projection)
  • $130,964 (long-term breakout target)

For bulls, the first order of business is reclaiming $116,358. A daily close above this green resistance zone would signal renewed strength and bring $117,462 into view—the top of the downtrend channel and a critical “make-or-break” area. Above this, a move toward $118,868–$119,926 becomes possible, with further upside only likely if macro headwinds subside. While a test of $122,783–$123,568 cannot be ruled out, sustained gains above this range are improbable without a major shift in fundamentals.

Bearish Targets

  • $113,082
  • $112,067–$110,300 (key support)
  • $108,196
  • $106,472–$105,697
  • $104,032
  • $101,879–$100,941 (major long-term support)

On the flip side, bears remain in control as long as BTC trades below the 20-day EMA. Continued rejection at this dynamic resistance increases the probability of a retest of the $110,300–$112,067 zone. Failure to hold here would put $108,196 in play—previously a strong base in early July. Below that, the risk of a slide toward $106,853–$105,697 rises, and should the $104,032 level give way, BTC could test the $100,941–$101,879 region, where the rising 200-day EMA ($100,870) provides critical support. A sustained drop below $100K remains unlikely, even after recent volatility.

Technical Indicators: RSI, EMA, and Momentum

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below neutral territory amid the latest sell-off, threatening to unleash further downward pressure if current weakness persists. On the weekly chart, RSI is trending south at 61 but still signals a mild buy bias. Ideally, a stabilization around the 55 mark would offer bulls a launching pad for renewed momentum.

The interplay between short-term (EMA9, EMA20), medium-term (EMA50), and long-term (EMA200) moving averages continues to shape the market structure. A close below EMA50 could accelerate losses, while any bounce will likely struggle to break through layered resistance until a clear shift in sentiment emerges.

Outlook: Eyes on Macro and Equities

With macro risk factors—such as U.S. equity market weakness and dollar strength—playing a decisive role, crypto investors should monitor global indices closely. Any further correction in the Nasdaq 100, combined with a strengthening DXY, could trigger deeper losses for BTC. Historically, August has been fraught with volatility, so caution is warranted.

In summary, while Bitcoin’s correction is mature, the risk of further downside remains. Bulls need to reclaim $116,358–$117,462 to restore confidence, but bears are circling. Support at $110,300 is critical—lose it, and $108,000 and below could be next. For now, the bias stays cautious as BTC navigates a tough summer stretch.