Bitcoin Smashes $122K as CPI Looms — Will the $117K CME Gap Get Filled?

1) Weekend price action: a swift run to $122,312, then the brakes

BTC/USD sprinted through resting liquidity into the low $122Ks before pausing. That move cleared a stack of late shorts and pushed open interest higher — but not in the frothy way we see at blow-off tops. Short-side liquidations over $100M were enough to break the range; they weren’t enough to lock in a one-way street.

Traders flagged two contrasts that define this rally versus the tail end of the last cycle:

• Spot leadership: The futures-to-spot ratio sits near multi-month lows, suggesting cash demand rather than leverage is running the show. Rallies built on spot typically digest pullbacks better.
• Measured leverage: Funding stayed orderly on the push. That lowers the odds of a cascade down on a minor dip — but it also means breakouts require real buyers, not forced shorts.

Weekend push into $122K zone. TradingView.

Locally, order book watchers now point to $123K–$125K as fresh offer density, with the prior breakout shelf in the $120K–$120.8K zone acting as first support on shallow dips. Lose that, and the conversation quickly slides toward the CME gap.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass now shows resistance being added at $123,000 and above.

2) The $117.2K CME gap: why it matters and how it usually behaves

The weekend rally printed a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures gap centered just above $117,200. Gaps form because CME is closed over the weekend while spot trades. Historically, Bitcoin tends to revisit these empty zones sooner rather than later, especially when they sit close to the prior range like this one.

I hate to be that guy...

But we have a large CME gap that opened up over the weekend - between $117 & $119k.

Ideally we close this soon. pic.twitter.com/fUr7K3huus

— Nic (@nicrypto) August 11, 2025

Three practical notes seasoned traders keep in mind:

1. Gaps are magnets, not promises. They attract price when the path is clear; they’re not a mandate. In strong trends, gaps can remain open for weeks.
2. Structure matters. This gap overlaps a classic resistance-turned-support area from last week. If bulls truly control the tape, they’ll defend the top of that zone on the first test.
3. Timing skews early-week. When gaps fill quickly, it’s often Monday–Tuesday liquidity doing the work as traditional flows return.

New CME gap near $117K

What to watch: A clean dip into $117.2K–$118K followed by strong absorption (wicks, rising spot bid, easing funding) would frame a high-probability continuation back to the highs. A sloppy slice through $117K that converts it into resistance suggests a deeper sweep toward $114K–$115K where larger bids sit.

3) Macro calendar: CPI/PPI in the spotlight, Fed cut odds climb

This is a data-heavy week. Markets lean toward a September rate cut, with odds recently pushing toward the ~90% area, up sharply from around ~57% a month ago. CPI landing cooler than expected would harden that view and likely reinforce risk appetite; a hot print dulls the cut narrative and pressures duration trades (and crypto beta) in the short run.

Keep an eye on:

• Headline vs. Core CPI: A benign headline with sticky core can still complicate the path to cuts.
• Services inflation & shelter: These components have carried persistence; a rollover there is the “all clear” risk wants.
• Labor signals: A nudge higher in unemployment has eased overheating fears; if that trend holds, the Fed has cover.

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bottom line: Macro doesn’t need to be perfect; it just needs to stay out of the way. A “cool-enough” CPI/PPI lets the crypto market focus back on micro structure and flows.

4) Coinbase Premium turns red: why U.S. spot tone matters intraday

The Coinbase Premium Index — the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT — slipped into negative territory after the spike. When it’s red, U.S. spot demand is softer than offshore, and that often translates into midday headwinds during New York hours.

This doesn’t kill the trend; it just changes the character of intraday moves. Expect stronger Asia → Europe handoffs and more two-way trading when U.S. equities open. For swing traders, the signal is most useful as a timing filter for entries and profit-taking rather than a directional call by itself.

U.S. spot tone softens. Source: CryptoQuant

5) Whales and stablecoins: USDT flows not flashing risk-off

Large USDT (TRC-20) transfers have a habit of flaring up ahead of BTC pullbacks when big players rotate into stables. The recent quiet in $10M+ transactions suggests whales aren’t aggressively derisking into strength. That aligns with the spot-led character of this leg higher and argues for shallow-and-bought dips over abrupt, air-pocket selloffs — absent a macro shock.

Whale USDT flows subdued. Source: CryptoQuant

Leverage, funding, and positioning: the “quietly healthy” mix

Across derivatives venues, funding has held in a tight band and open interest isn’t screaming euphoria. That combination supports continuation patterns: compression during U.S. hours, range expansion in Asia/Europe, and controlled pullbacks instead of disorderly unwinds. If you see funding drift materially positive alongside rising OI into resistance, that’s the cue to get pickier with entries.

Positioning takeaways:

• Futures/spot ratio near cycle lows: The opposite of a late-stage squeeze. Rallies can grind, but dips tend to find buyers.
• Basis stable: No sign of stress in perps relative to dated futures; no glaring arbitrage dislocations.
• Altcoin beta sensitive: On any downwards test toward the gap, high-beta alts usually overreact — classic “buy-the-dip season” for nimble traders.

“Bitcoin looks great, almost a new all-time high. However, it’s a weekend move,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a post on X Monday. 

“I would assume we'll see some tests on lower levels before we'll continue. Such a downwards test = violent move on Altcoins = buy the dip season.”

Eyeing overall leverage trends, meanwhile, trader BitBull had a bullish signal that should extend far beyond the current battle for price discovery.

The ratio of leveraged futures to spot buying is circling lows not seen since the pit of Bitcoin’s last bear market in late 2022.

“That’s a rare signal,” he summarised. 

“It means this rally isn’t being propped up by leveraged longs that can get wiped out overnight. It’s being driven by spot demand, the kind that tends to hold through volatility.”

Key levels and scenarios for the week

Upside path (trend intact)

• Hold $120K–$120.8K on shallow dips → probe $123K–$125K offers → acceptance above $125K opens a glide toward new ATHs.
• Momentum tells: Spot lead on breakouts, funding stable, Coinbase Premium firming back to flat/green.

Baseline path (controlled dip & reset)

• Drift into the $118K–$119K pocket, wick $117.2K to fill the gap, immediate reclaim → range-build $119K–$123K, then a measured push higher.
• What “good” looks like: Fast fill, fast bounce, thin follow-through on the short side.

Risk path (deeper check)

• Gap fill fails, $117K flips to resistance → slide into $114K–$115K liquidity where bigger bids likely sit; structure remains constructive above that zone.
• Invalidation for bulls: Multiple closes below $114K with rising funding and weak spot — that’s distribution, not digestion.

Ether and the rotation question

ETH/USD punched to its best levels since late 2021, but the breakout suffered from low volume and a few bearish divergences on short-timeframe momentum. That cocktail often leads to sideways-to-down consolidation before continuation. If Bitcoin does the baseline dip, ETH and the broader alt complex usually overshoot on the downside first and then snap back harder once BTC reclaims.

ETH breakout needs follow-through. Source: TradingView

How to read the tape this week (checklist)

• Into CPI/PPI: Respect the calendar. Expect smaller ranges and mean reversion ahead of prints.
• On any gap test: Watch for absorption in $117K–$118K and swift reclaim. No reclaim = be patient lower.
• Premiums and flows: Coinbase Premium green during U.S. hours is a tailwind; red warns of choppy sessions.
• Funding & OI: Rising together into resistance without spot leadership = time to de-risk edges.
• Whale stables: A spike in $10M+ USDT transfers often front-runs profit-taking; quiet flows favor controlled dips.

The big picture

This advance doesn’t resemble the leverage-driven, late-cycle squeezes of prior tops. It looks more like a spot-dominated grind higher, occasionally punctured by orderly resets when liquidity thins or macro nudges. In that environment, location beats prediction: buy strength after acceptance above resistance or buy weakness into well-mapped supports with hard stops; chase less, plan more.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk. Do your own research.