This weekly forecast movement was linked to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole symposium. He highlighted labor market resilience and a shift in risks from inflation toward recession, suggesting that the Fed may consider adjusting monetary policy. Investors saw this as a cautious signal for a possible September rate cut, which temporarily weakened the dollar and strengthened alternative assets. However, optimism was short-lived since traders had largely priced in such an outlook.
The decline in the BTC/USD exchange rate was also accelerated by the actions of a large player transferring BTC reserves into ETFs. According to CoinGecko, about $2 billion worth of Bitcoin was sold last week, and on Sunday, heavy selling caused the price to fall nearly 2.2% in just nine minutes.
Additional downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market comes from a new U.S. Treasury initiative to implement identity verification in DeFi smart contracts. Officials argue this is necessary to fight crime, but analysts warn it could undermine privacy, restrict access, and contradict the principles of decentralized finance.
Overall, the short-term fundamental background supports further downside in the BTC/USD forecast for the coming week.
Support and Resistance Levels
The BTC/USD rate dropped below 112,500.00 (Murray [4/8]) and may continue toward 106,250.00 (Murray [2/8]) and 100,000.00 (Murray [0/8]). For bulls, the key level is the middle Bollinger Band near 116,600.00. A breakout above it could restart growth to 121,875.00 and 125,000.00.
Technical indicators confirm the bearish weekly outlook: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are pointing lower, while MACD deepens in the negative zone.
- Resistance: 116,600.00, 121,875.00, 125,000.00
- Support: 112,500.00, 106,250.00, 100,000.00
Trading Scenarios (Weekly Forecast)
Short positions may be opened from 111,200.00 targeting 106,250.00 and 100,000.00, with stop-loss at 114,400.00. Estimated horizon: 5–7 days.
Long positions become valid above 116,600.00 with targets at 121,875.00 and 125,000.00, stop-loss at 113,300.00.