The negative dynamics are primarily driven by the pause in the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments at the December meeting. The minutes of the latest заседание showed that most Board members still consider further rate cuts likely, but not necessarily in the current year, expressing concern about two key economic issues — a slowdown in the labor market and inflation, which “does not show signs of a sustainable return” to the 2.0% target. The delayed September U.S. labor market data, published after the record-long government shutdown, were also mixed: the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, which was offset by an increase of 119.0 thousand in nonfarm payrolls instead of the expected 53.0 thousand. Overall, the U.S. labor market remains stable, strengthening the position of the Fed’s “hawks,” and the roughly 40.0% probability of a December rate cut continues to put significant pressure on non-dollar assets. In addition, overall trader sentiment is changing: toward year-end, major players are focusing more on preserving profits than on seeking new investments, which is reducing demand for digital assets and limiting market liquidity. Leading tokens are also falling amid large volumes of coins being transferred to centralized exchanges from long-dormant Bitcoin wallets. As a result, the general background remains pessimistic, as reflected by heavy ETF outflows and the Fear & Greed Index remaining in the “extreme fear” zone at 14.
It is also worth noting a number of positive developments for the sector, confirming a shift by U.S. regulators toward a more accommodating stance on the crypto community. In the latest U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement priorities document for 2026, the previously permanent section on digital assets is absent, which has been interpreted as a clear signal of a softer position toward cryptocurrencies. According to a new report by Cornerstone Research, overall SEC enforcement actions against digital companies in the 2025 fiscal year declined by approximately 30.0%. In particular, legal proceedings against Coinbase and XRP issuer Ripple were dropped. The document also notes that Chairman Paul Atkins has indicated that his administration’s priority will be to ensure a strong regulatory framework for digital assets through a rational, consistent, and principled approach. Meanwhile, the position of the head of another key regulator, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), may be filled by digital-asset supporter Michael Selig, whose nomination has passed several stages of congressional approval and is expected to be submitted to the Senate for confirmation in the near future. Experts believe this appointment would be positive for the market, as Selig played a key role in the “Crypto” initiative aimed at developing a crypto-friendly policy, and during his confirmation hearings he emphasized that his main task would be shaping regulation for digital assets.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, as investors are still wary of the possibility that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight monetary policy stance. As a result, most key assets may continue to decline or move into consolidation next week.