The relative calm in the crypto market is linked to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next steps ahead of the U.S. August labor market report due at 14:30 (GMT+2). At the Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious rate adjustment if the labor market weakens. However, July inflation data, which showed core CPI rising from 2.8% to 2.9%, reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate cut. If today’s data disappoint, the chances of a dovish pivot will increase: forecasts suggest unemployment may edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 75,000 jobs. This would pressure the dollar and boost alternative assets. Otherwise, downside risks for crypto could resume. For now, traders are focusing primarily on BTC as the most reliable digital asset.
Seasonality also matters: September has historically been weak for crypto. According to Glassnode, over the past 12 years, Bitcoin lost ground in this month 8 times with an average drop of 3.8%, while gains in the other 4 years were minor.
In the long term, fundamentals remain supportive. Investors continue to favor safe-haven digital assets, and the U.S. authorities’ effort to establish clear regulatory frameworks could attract more institutional players. Among the latest positive developments, the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance on spot crypto trading, confirming that current laws do not prevent regulated U.S. or foreign exchanges—such as NSE, DCMs, or FBOTs—from listing spot crypto products, including those with leverage and margin features.
Looking ahead to next week, most major cryptocurrencies may either resume growth or enter a consolidation phase.