On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced progress on several trade issues with China following his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump confirmed that Beijing will resume rare earth metal exports to the U.S. for one year, continue its crackdown on fentanyl production, and increase purchases of American agricultural goods. In return, the White House will lower tariffs on Chinese exports from 57.0% to 47.0%.
The potential for the Fed to maintain its current rate level for an extended period, combined with easing U.S.–China tensions, has boosted investor appetite for risk assets. As a result, safe-haven instruments such as gold faced selling pressure. While downside potential remains, a short-term rebound cannot be ruled out, especially if upcoming October employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) show signs of labor market cooling, which could prompt the Fed to reconsider further monetary easing.
Support and Resistance Levels
Gold is approaching the support zone between 3944.50 and 3906.25 (Fibonacci 38.2%, Murray [5/8]). A breakdown below this range could extend the decline toward 3750.00 (Murray [4/8]) and 3593.75 (Murray [3/8]). On the upside, the key resistance level is 4100.85 (Fibonacci 23.6%), aligned with the midline of the Bollinger Bands. A breakout above this point would open the path toward yearly highs near 4375.00 (Murray [8/8]) or even 4531.25 (Murray [+1/8]).
Technical indicators are mixed: Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic oscillator are turning upward, while the MACD histogram continues to narrow in the positive zone.
Resistance levels: 4100.85, 4375.00, 4531.25.
Support levels: 3906.25, 3750.00, 3593.75.
Trading Scenarios and XAU/USD Outlook
Long positions can be opened above 4100.85 with targets at 4375.00 and 4531.25, and a stop-loss at 3945.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Short positions can be opened below 3906.25 with targets at 3750.00 and 3593.75, and a stop-loss at 4025.00.
Scenario
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 4100.90 |
| Take Profit | 4375.00, 4531.25 |
| Stop Loss | 3945.00 |
| Key Levels | 3593.75, 3750.00, 3906.25, 4100.85, 4375.00, 4531.25 |
Alternative Scenario
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 3906.25 |
| Take Profit | 3750.00, 3593.75 |
| Stop Loss | 4025.00 |
| Key Levels | 3593.75, 3750.00, 3906.25, 4100.85, 4375.00, 4531.25 |