Geopolitical risks continue to add support. While U.S. and European officials discuss post-conflict security guarantees for Ukraine, Moscow stressed that talks without its participation would not lead to compromise. As a result, Western sanctions on Russian oil remain intact, and further trade restrictions are still possible. India, however, reiterated that its imports of Russian energy supplies will continue despite U.S. warnings.
Speculative positioning is also shifting. The latest report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed net speculative long positions in WTI dropped from 141.8K to 116.7K. Trader activity slowed across major categories, consistent with a corrective phase: producers held 439.632K long versus 372.243K short contracts, while buyers reduced their exposure by 0.442K contracts and sellers cut 11.560K.
Trend outlook
The long-term trend remains bullish, but after June’s correction the instrument broke below 65.50 and reached 62.34. From there, prices are rebounding back toward 65.50, and a breakout above this level would open the way to 71.00 and 76.30 (June highs). Conversely, a breakdown below 62.34 would expose the lower boundary of the trend near 60.24.
Currently, the price remains below both the EMA 21 and EMA 190, reflecting short- and medium-term bearish pressure. The RSI (14) is in neutral territory, allowing room for both upward and downward moves.
In the medium term, the downtrend is intact. Earlier in August, prices slipped through the 66.30–65.70 zone and headed toward 60.10–59.48. The present correction may test resistance at 68.04–67.50, after which fresh short positions targeting 65.07 and 62.09 would look attractive.
Support and resistance
- Resistance: 69.85, 76.30, 80.50
- Support: 64.50, 60.25
Trading scenarios
Base scenario: Buy orders can be considered above 65.50, targeting 71.00, with a stop-loss at 63.50. Horizon: 9–12 days.
Alternative scenario: Sell orders below 61.95 aim for 60.24, with a stop-loss at 62.78.