Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates near $51 amid Fed rate expectations and U.S. shutdown end

Following a bipartisan Senate vote, lawmakers approved a bill extending federal government funding through the end of January 2026. Democratic representatives temporarily agreed to postpone debates on healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) until December — a move that could sharply raise insurance costs for about 20 million Americans. The House of Representatives is expected to approve the measure later today, after which President Donald Trump will sign it into law. During the shutdown, food assistance for low-income citizens was reduced, pay for most federal employees was suspended, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered airlines to cut flights due to an air traffic controller shortage. Analysts now expect upcoming macroeconomic releases — especially labor market data — to show a slowdown, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut at the December meeting. Meanwhile, Fed Board member Steven Miran, known for his dovish stance, reiterated in an interview with CNBC the need to accelerate rate cuts, suggesting an immediate 50-basis-point reduction to support growth.

Currently, traders have access to the latest nonfarm employment data from Automatic Data Processing (ADP), based on a survey of around 400,000 businesses, which showed a decline of 11,250 jobs after a gain of 14,250 in the previous month amid widespread layoffs.

Additional support for XAG/USD comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decision to include silver in its 2025 list of Critical Minerals. This classification makes silver a strategic resource, potentially affecting its availability, investment attractiveness, and government support for mining and processing. The move is already influencing industrial demand, contributing to global market imbalances. Moreover, silver could face new tariffs under its strategic status, tightening supply further. According to CME Group Inc., trading volumes have increased sharply: futures positions rose from 55,271 to 102,994 contracts, and options from 11,415 to 22,856 — an almost 50% rise in a few days, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show slight upward expansion, lagging behind the current bullish momentum. The MACD maintains a strong buy signal above the signal line, while the Stochastic hovers near overbought territory, suggesting short-term correction risks.

Resistance levels: 51.69, 52.30, 53.00, 53.57.

Support levels: 51.00, 50.00, 49.30, 48.76.

Trading Scenarios and XAG/USD Forecast

Long positions can be opened after a confident breakout above 51.69 with a target at 53.00. Stop loss — 51.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

A return of bearish momentum with a breakout below 50.00 could signal short positions with a target at 48.04. Stop loss — 51.00.