Today at 22:30 (GMT+2), the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to report an increase in fuel inventories from –2.400 million barrels to 0.500 million barrels, and tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) may show growth from –6.014 million barrels to 2.500 million barrels. This indicates a gradual release of reserves from storage, partially contradicting the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast of oversupply. Meanwhile, trading volumes in crude oil futures continue to decline, with the average now at 0.82 thousand contracts, compared to 1.00–1.10 million in early August.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, the asset is approaching the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 82.00–66.00.
Technical indicators weaken the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, while the AO histogram is forming corrective bars, rising in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 65.70, 69.80.
Support levels: 63.00, 57.80.
Trading Scenarios
Long positions may be opened after growth and consolidation above 65.70 with a target of 69.80. Stop-loss — 64.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 63.00 with a target of 57.80. Stop-loss — 65.00.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry Point: 65.70
Take Profit: 69.80
Stop Loss: 64.00
Key Levels: 57.80, 63.00, 65.70, 69.80
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry Point: 63.00
Take Profit: 57.80
Stop Loss: 65.00
Key Levels: 57.80, 63.00, 65.70, 69.80