Investors are reacting to Bloomberg reports that Indian refineries resumed purchases of Russian Urals crude with deliveries scheduled for September and October. Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. acquired several shipments, highlighting India’s continued cooperation with Russia despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% ad valorem duty on Indian goods, which brought the total tariff burden to 50%. Currently, Russian energy accounts for 42% of India’s imports compared to just 1% before February 2022, supported by Moscow’s discount policy — Urals is now priced $5 below Brent. Analysts expect trade volumes between Russia and India to increase by 10% annually, facilitated by settlements in national currencies amid Western sanctions after the Russia–Ukraine conflict began.

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions in WTI crude fell to 116.7K from 141.8K the week prior. CME Group data shows investors’ crude oil futures holdings stood at 735.0K contracts and options at 110.9K — slightly below last week’s averages of 980.0K and 186.0K, respectively.

Support and Resistance Levels

The instrument is correcting upward from 62.50 (Murray level [4/8]) and approaching resistance at 64.45–65.62. A breakout above would open the way to 68.75 (Murray [6/8]) and 71.88 (Murray [7/8], upper boundary of the long-term descending channel). A drop below 62.50 would resume the decline toward 59.38 (Murray [3/8]), 56.25 (Murray [2/8]), and 53.12 (Murray [1/8]).

Technical indicators confirm a bearish bias: Bollinger Bands are sloping downward, MACD remains in negative territory, and the Stochastic oscillator is overbought, signaling potential downside.

Resistance: 65.62, 68.75, 71.88

Support: 62.50, 59.38, 56.25, 53.12

Trading Scenarios

Short positions may be considered below 62.50 or on a reversal from 65.62, targeting 59.38, 56.25, and 53.12 with stop-losses at 64.50 and 68.00, respectively. Timeframe: 5–7 days.

WTI Crude Oil prices

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 62.50
  • Take Profit: 59.38, 56.25, 53.12
  • Stop Loss: 64.50
  • Key Levels: 53.12, 56.25, 59.38, 62.50, 65.62, 68.75, 71.88

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL LIMIT
  • Entry Point: 65.62
  • Take Profit: 59.38, 56.25, 53.12
  • Stop Loss: 68.00
  • Key Levels: 53.12, 56.25, 59.38, 62.50, 65.62, 68.75, 71.88