Flash August PMIs painted a mixed picture: manufacturing eased to 47.3 from 48.0, while services improved to 53.6 from 51.8, lifting the composite to 53.0 from 51.5. That resilience helped pause the pound’s slide—firmer activity alongside sticky inflation argues for the BoE to keep policy steady for now.
The dollar is bid into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address on Friday at 16:00 (GMT+2). Many hope for a dovish tilt given softer labor signals, but the latest FOMC minutes underscored concern about re-accelerating inflation, which doesn’t square with near-term easing. Net: policy path remains uncertain.
Levels and signals
Price is testing the 1.3428–1.3405 band (Murray [4/8], 23.6% Fib, middle Bollinger line). A clean break would target 1.3306 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3184 (Murray [0/8]). For bulls, 1.3550 (Murray [6/8]) is the pivot; regaining and holding above it would reopen 1.3672 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.3794 (Murray [+2/8]).
Signals are mixed: Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD holds in positive territory, and Stochastic is pointing lower but nearing oversold, hinting at a possible turn.
- Resistance: 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794
- Support: 1.3405, 1.3306, 1.3184
Trading plans
Short idea: Sell below 1.3405 targeting 1.3306 and 1.3184, stop at 1.3490. Horizon: 5–7 days.
Long idea: Buy above 1.3550 targeting 1.3672 and 1.3794, stop at 1.3460.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry: 1.3400
Take Profit: 1.3306, 1.3184
Stop Loss: 1.3490
Key levels: 1.3184, 1.3306, 1.3405, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry: 1.3555
Take Profit: 1.3672, 1.3794
Stop Loss: 1.3460
Key levels: 1.3184, 1.3306, 1.3405, 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3794