In its monetary policy statement, the regulator forecast borrowing costs at an average of 2.71% in Q4, below the May projection of 2.92%, and down to 2.55% in Q1 2026 instead of the previously expected 2.85%. Reuters economists expect two more cuts by year-end, bringing the rate to 2.50%.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve’s outlook remains uncertain. The latest meeting minutes highlighted two risks — rising inflation and weaker employment — with most board members viewing inflation as the more pressing threat. Coupled with July’s sharp rise in U.S. producer prices (PPI up from 2.4% to 3.3% YoY, core from 2.6% to 3.7%), the Fed may delay adopting a dovish stance, which pressures assets alternative to the U.S. dollar.

Later today at 16:00 (GMT+2), Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium. A hint at a September rate cut could reverse NZD/USD upward; otherwise, the downtrend will likely persist.

Support and Resistance Levels

The pair is testing 0.5798 (Murray [–1/8]); a breakdown below would extend the fall to 0.5737 (Murray [–2/8]), 0.5676 (Murray [–2/8], H4), and 0.5530 (Fibonacci 0.0%). The key resistance area is 0.5905–0.5920 (middle Bollinger Band, Murray [1/8]); a breakout would push the pair higher to 0.6042 (Murray [3/8]) and 0.6104 (Murray [4/8]).

Indicators confirm the bearish bias: Bollinger Bands slope downward, MACD is expanding in negative territory, while Stochastic is oversold, allowing for a limited corrective rebound.

Resistance: 0.5920, 0.6042, 0.6104

Support: 0.5798, 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5530

Trading Scenarios

Short positions may be opened below 0.5798 targeting 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5530 with a stop-loss at 0.5840. Horizon: 5–7 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.5920 targeting 0.6042 and 0.6104 with a stop-loss at 0.5860.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.5795
  • Take Profit: 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5530
  • Stop Loss: 0.5840
  • Key Levels: 0.5530, 0.5676, 0.5737, 0.5798, 0.5920, 0.6042, 0.6104

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry Point: 0.5925
  • Take Profit: 0.6042, 0.6104
  • Stop Loss: 0.5860
  • Key Levels: 0.5530, 0.5676, 0.5737, 0.5798, 0.5920, 0.6042, 0.6104