Among the lowest inflation prints were Cyprus (0.1%), France (0.9%), and Ireland (1.6%), while Romania (6.6%), Estonia (5.6%), and Slovakia (4.6%) topped the list. Month-on-month, inflation slowed in eight member states, was unchanged in six, and accelerated in thirteen. Services, food, alcohol and tobacco, and non-energy industrial goods remain the main sources of price pressure.
Traders are also watching EU–US trade talks. A final deal has yet to be signed as negotiators iron out language on “non-tariff barriers.” According to Reuters, US officials want room to adjust the Digital Services Act (DSA), which they argue burdens American tech firms and curbs free speech, while the European Commission considers DSA loosening a “red line.” Previously, Washington and Brussels aligned on a 15% tariff on most EU goods, averting a broader standoff between two economies that together account for nearly a third of global trade. EU officials had expected President Donald Trump to cut US tariffs on EU autos from 27.5% to 15% by August 15; the Financial Times reports this will likely wait until a joint statement is finalized.
On the US side, the Fed’s July minutes showed concern over the labor market and inflation, with a majority judging it premature to cut rates. The record highlighted internal disagreements: Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman favored a reduction. Participants also flagged uncertainty from higher trade tariffs and the risk that CPI could overshoot the 2.0% target.
Levels and signals
EUR/USD has been correcting lower this week after turning down from 1.1719 (Murray [8/8]). A break of 1.1597 (Murray [6/8])—backed by the middle Bollinger Band—would open room toward 1.1475 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.1414 (Murray [3/8]). For bulls, 1.1719 remains pivotal: a topside breach would revive the move toward the yearly highs at 1.1841 (Murray [+2/8]) and 1.1963 (Murray [+2/8], W1).
Indicators are mixed ahead of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks tomorrow at 16:00 (GMT+2): Bollinger Bands are flat, MACD holds positive, while Stochastic points lower but is nearing a potential turn zone. The broader uptrend remains intact, keeping a medium-term rebound scenario in play.
- Resistance: 1.1719, 1.1841, 1.1963
- Support: 1.1597, 1.1475, 1.1414
Trading plans
Long idea: Buy above 1.1719 targeting 1.1841 and 1.1963, stop at 1.1640. Horizon: 5–7 days.
Short idea: Sell below 1.1597 targeting 1.1475 and 1.1414, stop at 1.1680.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry: 1.1720
Take Profit: 1.1841, 1.1963
Stop Loss: 1.1640
Key levels: 1.1414, 1.1475, 1.1597, 1.1719, 1.1841, 1.1963
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry: 1.1597
Take Profit: 1.1475, 1.1414
Stop Loss: 1.1680
Key levels: 1.1414, 1.1475, 1.1597, 1.1719, 1.1841, 1.1963