XAG/USD Forecast: Silver Extends Rally Toward Key Resistance at 44.80

The silver market remains on solid footing. Most factors currently point to further upside, chief among them the Federal Reserve’s stance, which could include lower borrowing costs over a longer horizon. This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at at least two additional cuts, noting that tariff measures have not pushed inflation as much as previously feared.

Supply dynamics also lend support. Yesterday, Alien Metals Ltd., drilling at the Elizabeth Hill project in Australia, reported encouraging core results: near-surface intervals (down to ~60m) showed grades up to 1,050 grams of silver per tonne of ore—high by modern mining standards. Drilling is slated to begin within 4–6 weeks, which could add incremental metal to market supply.

On the investment side, speculative positioning remains constructive. The latest CFTC report showed 53,003 long contracts versus 14,875 short. CME silver futures volume continues to climb as well, reaching 107,000 yesterday—well above the August average of 63,000. Options activity is elevated too, at 31,000 contracts versus an August average of 13,500, reflecting both hedging and short-term opportunity seeking.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, prices are trading just below the resistance line of an ascending channel bounded by 47.00–40.00.

Technical signals remain bullish and are strengthening day by day: the Alligator EMA bands have turned upward, and the AO histogram continues to print rising green bars in positive territory.

Support levels: 43.10, 39.50.

Resistance levels: 44.80, 47.40.

Trading scenarios and outlook for XAG/USD

If the advance continues and price secures a breakout above 44.80, long positions targeting 47.40 become relevant. Stop-loss: 43.20. Timeframe: 7+ days.

If downside resumes and price fixes below 43.10, short positions targeting 39.50 come into play. Stop-loss: 45.00.