As a result, current pricing is once again tied to U.S. Federal Reserve policy. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered an outlook on the economy, noting that risks remain that tariff measures may impact inflation. The decision on a rate cut has not yet been finalized, though the regulator is prepared to act. Powell indicated that the Fed expects confirmation from upcoming August labor market and inflation data. According to CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for a rate adjustment have risen from 73.0% in midweek to 84.0%, providing local support for gold prices.
Meanwhile, investment demand for the metal has started to decline. Data from CME Group shows trading volumes dropped from a peak of 543,000 contracts on August 13 to 181,000 contracts as of yesterday. Options positions also decreased significantly, with Thursday’s volume at 46,300 versus a monthly high of 124,000.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the price is correcting within a local “triangle” pattern with narrowing boundaries of 3420.0–3300.0, currently trading in the middle of the range.
Technical indicators remain in a weak sell signal during the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are slightly below the signal line, while the AO histogram continues to form corrective bars below the zero line.
Support levels: 3310.0, 3180.0.
Resistance levels: 3410.0, 3500.0.
Trading scenarios
Long positions may be opened if the price rises and consolidates above resistance at 3410.0, with a target of 3500.0 and a stop-loss at 3340.0. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened if the price falls and consolidates below support at 3310.0, with a target of 3180.0 and a stop-loss at 3370.0.
Scenario
Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 3410.0
Take Profit: 3500.0
Stop Loss: 3340.0
Key levels: 3180.0, 3310.0, 3410.0, 3500.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 3310.0
Take Profit: 3180.0
Stop Loss: 3370.0
Key levels: 3180.0, 3310.0, 3410.0, 3500.0