Unemployment edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%; headline employment rose from +1.0k to +24.5k (vs. +25.3k expected), while full-time jobs swung from −36.7k to +60.5k. The mix slightly lowers the odds of further near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), though many analysts still see the Bank reverting to a dovish stance at least once more this year. If growth cools, officials could extend the cycle at the 30 September meeting, trimming the cash rate from 3.60% to 3.35%.

U.S. inflation data added downside pressure: PPI jumped 0.9% m/m (vs. 0.2% prelim) and 3.3% y/y (vs. 2.5%), while core PPI also rose 0.9% m/m and 3.7% y/y. The hotter read dampens odds of imminent Fed easing, though a 17 September rate cut remains on the table.

The long-term trend is still up: last week price cleared 0.6500, extended, and has now retested the breakout. Buyers are defending the level, keeping scope for a push toward 0.6587 and 0.6700. A clean break below 0.6500 would open a deeper pullback toward 0.6420, where dip-buying back to 0.6500 would look reasonable. Price is hovering near the EMA(21) and above the EMA(190), a mix that speaks to a sideways short-term bias within an underlying uptrend. RSI(14) sits in neutral, allowing for both long and short setups.

The medium-term trend remains constructive. After printing a 0.6625 high on 24 July, AUD/USD corrected into trend support at 0.6480–0.6383 (defended two weeks ago). From that band, longs toward 0.6567 (weekly high) and 0.6625 are in play. A breakdown below 0.6383 would flip the bias lower toward Zone 2 (0.6185–0.6163).

AUD/USD

Support and Resistance

  • Resistance: 0.6587, 0.6700, 0.6810
  • Support: 0.6500, 0.6420, 0.6370

Trading Plans

  • Longs: Consider entries from 0.6500 targeting 0.6587; Stop-loss: 0.6460. Horizon: 9–12 days.
  • Shorts: Consider entries below 0.6457 targeting 0.6370; Stop-loss: 0.6500.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: BUY LIMIT
  • Entry: 0.6500
  • Take Profit: 0.6587
  • Stop Loss: 0.6460
  • Key Levels: 0.6370, 0.6420, 0.6500, 0.6587, 0.6700, 0.6810

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry: 0.6455
  • Take Profit: 0.6370
  • Stop Loss: 0.6500
  • Key Levels: 0.6370, 0.6420, 0.6500, 0.6587, 0.6700, 0.6810