According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), all thirteen sectors of the economy expanded in July, showing a combined 2.9% increase. On a monthly basis, the strongest growth was recorded in utilities (electricity, gas, and water services) at 15.8%, professional, scientific, and technical services (+4.6%), manufacturing (+4.2%), and construction (+3.8%). Year-over-year, utilities gained 16.2%, manufacturing rose 13.2%, and accommodation & food services grew 10.5%. The only sector still showing a slowdown compared to last year was mining (–1.7%), though this marked a sharp recovery from Q1, when it plunged –15.0%

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index (USDX) trades near 97.70 as odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased following revised labor market data, which showed a downward adjustment of –911,000 jobs. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in a 91.6% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, versus just 8.4% for a 50-basis-point cut. On Thursday at 14:30 (GMT+2), traders will closely watch August CPI data, expected to accelerate from 2.7% to 2.9%, reflecting pressure from trade tariffs.

Данные инструмента Чикагской товарной биржи (CME) FedWatch Tool
FedWatch Tool (CME) Data. Screenshot September 10, 2025

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the pair is bouncing from the support line of the upward channel, with dynamic boundaries at 0.6740–0.6460.

Technical indicators reinforce the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are pointing upward, diverging from the signal line, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) forms rising bars in positive territory.

  • Resistance levels: 0.6650, 0.6780

  • Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6420

AUD/USD

Trading Scenarios

  • Buy Stop: Long positions may be considered after a breakout above 0.6650, targeting 0.6780. Stop-loss at 0.6590. Implementation: 7 days or more.

  • Sell Stop: Short positions may be considered after a drop below 0.6560, targeting 0.6420. Stop-loss at 0.6620.

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.6650

  • Take Profit: 0.6780

  • Stop Loss: 0.6590

  • Key Levels: 0.6420, 0.6560, 0.6650, 0.6780

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: SELL STOP

  • Entry Point: 0.6560

  • Take Profit: 0.6420

  • Stop Loss: 0.6620

  • Key Levels: 0.6420, 0.6560, 0.6650, 0.6780