According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the June trade balance posted a surplus of A$5.37 billion, well above both analyst forecasts (A$3.18 billion) and the previous month's figure (A$1.60 billion). This robust performance was underpinned by a 6.0% jump in exports, notably of metal ores, minerals, coal, and gold. Easing global trade tensions enabled increased shipments to key destinations like China and the United States. On the import side, volumes declined by 3.1% due to a seasonal slowdown in capital goods purchases.
Business sentiment data added nuance to the macro backdrop. The AIG Manufacturing Index improved in July, rising from –29.3 to –23.9, while the Construction Index climbed out of deep contraction to 1.3. However, both remain in negative territory, underscoring persistent headwinds for Australia’s domestic economy despite external tailwinds.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (USDX) holds steady at 97.90 amid political uncertainty. Traders are focused on President Trump’s imminent nomination to replace former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, as well as the fallout from a labor data falsification scandal that led to the dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erica McEntarfer. Markets await US jobless claims data at 14:30 (GMT+2), with fears of data revisions potentially upending recent positive employment trends.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, AUD/USD trades above the lower boundary of its ascending channel (0.6420–0.6650). Technical signals are mixed: the fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are flattening and approaching the signal line, while the AO histogram shows a series of bullish bars in negative territory—suggesting momentum for further upside is building, though not yet decisive.
- Resistance: 0.6550, 0.6670
- Support: 0.6460, 0.6360
Trade setups:
- Buy stop: Enter long positions above 0.6550, targeting 0.6670. Stop loss: 0.6490. Time horizon: 7+ days.
- Sell stop: Enter short positions below 0.6460, targeting 0.6360. Stop loss: 0.6510.
AUD/USD: Trade surplus fuels bullish sentimentSummary: The AUD/USD is supported by a resurgent Australian trade balance and easing global headwinds, even as domestic economic data remains mixed. With technical signals hinting at further upside, traders should monitor developments in US monetary policy and labor data for additional catalysts.