One of the key drivers for the Australian currency is the gradual rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which could bring the rate down to 3.35% next month. US import tariffs remain at 10.0%, but domestic producers have managed to withstand the pressure, while the domestic economy shows stability. In June, total wages reached 103.918 billion AUD, with a monthly increase of 1.5% or 1.535 billion AUD. For Q2, growth totaled 5.9% or 5.788 billion AUD. Investors now await the final August business activity data: the manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 51.3 to 52.9 points, and services PMI from 54.1 to 55.1 points, confirming business resilience under trade tensions.

The US dollar has lost last week’s gains and is trading at 97.70 in the USDX. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his Jackson Hole speech, unexpectedly signaled readiness to ease monetary policy in September, though the exact scope depends on upcoming August labor and inflation data. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September rose to 87.3%.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the price is moving away from the support line of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 0.6700–0.6430.

Technical indicators slow down the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are directed downward, approaching the signal line, while the AO histogram has formed several bearish bars in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6530, 0.6620.
Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6270.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be considered after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6530, targeting 0.6620, with a stop-loss at 0.6480. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions can be considered after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6420, targeting 0.6270, with a stop-loss at 0.6500.

AUD/USD

Scenario

Timeframe: Weekly
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry point: 0.6530
Take Profit: 0.6620
Stop Loss: 0.6480
Key levels: 0.6270, 0.6420, 0.6530, 0.6620

Alternative scenario

Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry point: 0.6420
Take Profit: 0.6270
Stop Loss: 0.6500
Key levels: 0.6270, 0.6420, 0.6530, 0.6620