At 10:00 (GMT+2), Italy releases its final July inflation print. Consensus looks for headline CPI at 0.4% m/m, unchanged from the prior month, keeping the annual rate at 1.7%, in line with the EU-harmonized measure. Industrial output data showed a 0.2% m/m increase in June and a 0.1% gain versus the previous quarter, supported by higher production of industrial goods (+0.2%) and energy (+0.1%).
On Thursday at 11:00 (GMT+2), preliminary Q2 eurozone GDP is due, with quarterly growth seen slowing from 0.6% to 0.1% and the annual rate easing from 1.5% to 1.4%. On Tuesday at the same time, the ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to decline from 36.1 to 30.0 amid shifting U.S. trade tariffs—signals that could reinforce expectations for a dovish ECB stance into the autumn.
The U.S. dollar remains steady; the USDX trades near 97.80. Positioning is restrained after comments from President Donald Trump that the shortlist for the next Fed Chair has expanded to ten candidates. Focus intensifies into Tuesday’s 14:30 (GMT+2) U.S. CPI release: forecasts point to 0.2% m/m after 0.3%, lifting the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.7%. Core inflation is seen at 3.0%, well above the 2.0% objective, which would strengthen odds of lower borrowing costs by year-end.
Support and Resistance
On the daily chart, EUR/USD continues to correct, again approaching the previously broken support of the rising channel spanning 1.2200–1.1700.
Technical signals that had long favored selling are fading and are close to flipping to buys: the Alligator’s fast EMAs are near the signal line with a narrowing range, while the AO histogram builds higher corrective bars within the sell zone.
Support: 1.1570, 1.1400. Resistance: 1.1740, 1.1960.
Trading Setups
Long setup: Buy on a sustained break above 1.1740 with a target at 1.1960. Stop-loss: 1.1650. Holding period: 7+ days.
Short setup: Sell on a sustained break below 1.1570 with a target at 1.1400. Stop-loss: 1.1640.
Weekly Scenario
Recommendation: BUY STOP
Entry: 1.1740
Take Profit: 1.1960
Stop Loss: 1.1650
Key levels: 1.1400, 1.1570, 1.1740, 1.1960
Alternative Scenario
Recommendation: SELL STOP
Entry: 1.1570
Take Profit: 1.1400
Stop Loss: 1.1640
Key levels: 1.1400, 1.1570, 1.1740, 1.1960
Headline Options
1) EUR/USD Stalls at 1.1669 as Traders Brace for Eurozone CPI and GDP
2) Breakout Watch: Key 1.1570/1.1740 Levels in Focus Before U.S. CPI
3) Euro on Pause: Inflation Prints and ZEW Set the Tone for ECB Path