EUR/USD Holds at 1.1605 as EU PMI Data Signals Weak Momentum

In France, the Manufacturing PMI slightly increased from 48.2 to 48.3 in October, while Germany’s figure, expected at 09:30 (GMT+2), is forecast to remain at 49.5. As a result, the composite PMI for the euro area, due at 10:00 (GMT+2), is also projected to stay unchanged at 49.8. The Services PMIs weakened, falling from 48.5 to 47.1 in France and expected to decline from 51.5 to 51.1 in Germany and from 51.3 to 51.2 in the eurozone overall, shifting the composite reading from 51.2 to 51.0.

The U.S. dollar trades near 98.8 points, continuing its positive momentum from earlier in the week. Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will release September inflation data to enable cost-of-living adjustments for 2026. Analysts expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.4% month-over-month and from 2.9% to 3.1% year-over-year — a change unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

Support and Resistance Levels

On the daily chart, the pair is attempting to rebound from the recently broken support line of an ascending channel, with boundaries between 1.2000–1.1680.

Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, widening their spread, while the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1680, 1.1860.
Support levels: 1.1530, 1.1390.

Trading Scenarios and EUR/USD Forecast

Short positions may be opened after a decline and consolidation below 1.1530, targeting 1.1390. Stop-loss — 1.1600. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after growth and consolidation above 1.1680, targeting 1.1860. Stop-loss — 1.1600.