Spain’s services PMI for July surged to 55.1 from 51.9—the strongest pace among major eurozone economies. Italy reported 52.3 (vs. 52.5 expected), Germany hit 50.6 (vs. 50.1 expected), while France slipped to 48.5 from 49.6. The aggregate services PMI landed at 51.0 (vs. 51.2 expected), with the S&P Global composite index down to 50.9 from 52.0. With growth drivers lacking, EUR/USD movement will increasingly depend on dollar dynamics.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has officially paused the introduction of retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. following the July 27 trade agreement. "Mirror" measures—worth €93 billion and targeting American goods like soybeans, aircraft, and cars—were set to activate on August 7 absent a deal. The White House maintains 15% tariffs on all EU imports except steel and aluminum, which face a 50% rate.
The U.S. dollar remains stable, with the USDX at 98.40. Investors are cautious after President Donald Trump announced he will nominate a new Federal Reserve Board member within 48 hours following the dismissal of Adriana Kugler. Markets speculate the president may nominate a candidate more aligned with his policy stance—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly among the frontrunners.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is again approaching the support line of its ascending channel (range: 1.2100–1.1600).
Technical indicators are weakening the previously strong sell signal but have not shifted yet: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, with a narrowing range; the AO histogram prints new corrective bars in the sell zone.
- Support Levels: 1.1470, 1.1220
- Resistance Levels: 1.1660, 1.1830
Trading Scenarios
- Sell Stop: Entry at 1.1470, Take Profit at 1.1220, Stop Loss at 1.1550. Time horizon: 7+ days.
- Buy Stop (Alternative): Entry at 1.1660, Take Profit at 1.1830, Stop Loss at 1.1590.
- Key Levels: 1.1220, 1.1470, 1.1660, 1.1830