The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the key interest rate twice in 2025, bringing it to 2.50%. This forecast comes from a Reuters survey conducted after the latest meeting, where two members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported a deeper 50bp cut. More than 75% of surveyed economists (13 out of 17) forecast a total reduction of –50bp this year, while the remaining 25% expect a move to 2.75%. Nearly 90% believe the October 8 meeting will bring a 25bp cut, while two expect no change. Chief economist Paul Conway highlighted uncertainty ahead but said the recent –25bp move to 3.00% and signals of further easing support businesses.

Additional pressure comes from new U.S. tariffs: since September 1, a 15% duty on imports from New Zealand replaced the earlier planned 10%. Investors also noted Q2 retail sales, where overall volumes slowed from 0.8% to 0.5%, but core sales rose from 0.4% to 0.7% (vs. forecasts of 0.1% and –0.3%).

Meanwhile, markets await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. He said high borrowing costs are slowing growth, with risks shifting toward weaker labor markets. He stressed the Fed faces a “difficult situation” balancing inflation and employment. Today’s U.S. housing data at 14:00 (GMT+2) and 16:00 (GMT+2) could support USD sentiment. This weekly outlook highlights how NZD/USD forecasts remain tied to both RBNZ policy and Fed signals.

Support and Resistance Levels

For significant growth, the NZD/USD rate must hold above 0.5920 (Murray [1/8], mid-Bollinger band). This would confirm a return to the medium-term upward channel toward 0.6042 (Murray [3/8]) and 0.6104 (Murray [4/8]). A close below 0.5798 (Murray [–1/8]) would extend declines toward 0.5737, 0.5676, and 0.5580 (Fib retracement 0.0%).

Technical indicators confirm a new bearish tendency: Bollinger Bands point downward, MACD remains negative, and Stochastic turned up, allowing for limited upside correction.

  • Resistance: 0.5920, 0.6042, 0.6104
  • Support: 0.5798, 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5580

Trading Scenarios

Short positions may be opened below 0.5798 with targets at 0.5737, 0.5676, and 0.5580, stop-loss at 0.5840. (Implementation: 5–7 days)

Long positions may be opened above 0.5920 with targets at 0.6042 and 0.6104, stop-loss at 0.5860.

NZD/USD

Scenario

  • Timeframe: Weekly
  • Recommendation: SELL STOP
  • Entry point: 0.5798
  • Take Profit: 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5580
  • Stop Loss: 0.5840
  • Key levels: 0.6104, 0.6042, 0.5920, 0.5798, 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5580

Alternative Scenario

  • Recommendation: BUY STOP
  • Entry point: 0.5925
  • Take Profit: 0.6042, 0.6104
  • Stop Loss: 0.5860
  • Key levels: 0.6104, 0.6042, 0.5920, 0.5798, 0.5737, 0.5676, 0.5580